Thoughts on the 2021 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

 

Michael Cuddyer, getting a hit for the Twins.

LaTroy Hawkins, throwing some heat at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome.

Torii Hunter, showing off his skills in center field.

Is it finally Curt Schilling's year to enter the Hall of Fame?

The 2021 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot was released earlier this week. It’s one of the weakest ballots we’ve seen recently, with no obvious future Hall of Famers joining the ballot. I’ll take a look at the newcomers to the ballot first, before examining the returning candidates.

Mark Buehrle: I fully expected him to pitch for 10 more years and become a Tommy John/Jim Kaat/Jamie Moyer soft-tossing crafty lefty who pitches until he’s 45. Instead he retired after winning 15 games in his age 36 season. Buehrle had earned $138 million in salary by then, according to Baseball-Reference, so why not kick back and relax?

Even though Buehrle spent most of his career pitching for the hated White Sox, the rivals of my Minnesota Twins, I always liked him. He was the pitching version of Paul Konerko, a good player who didn’t seem like a jerk, so there was no point in hating the guy.

Buehrle had a solid career, winning 214 games and putting up 60 WAR. But for me, he doesn’t pass the smell test—he just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. I used to make fun of this simple judgement on players, but I really think it works for 95% of the players. It’s the 5% of the players it doesn’t work for that inspire all the debate.

Buehrle was a fine pitcher, but what’s the rationale for electing him to the Hall of Fame instead of, say, Jerry Koosman? Buehrle is at 60 WAR, and Koosman is at 57 WAR. Buehrle had 4 seasons of 5 or more WAR. So did Koosman. Koosman had 2 seasons where he won 20 games, something Buehrle never did. Both Koosman and Buehrle had 6 seasons where they won 15 or more games. Just to be clear, I’m not pushing Jerry Koosman for the Hall of Fame, I’m just saying that Koosman has some similarities to Buehrle. Which is also to say, I can’t figure out a compelling argument for electing Mark Buehrle to the Hall of Fame.

Buehrle is below the average Hall of Famer in all the HOF stats on Baseball-Reference: black ink, gray ink, Hall of Fame Monitor, and Hall of Fame Standards. That isn’t necessarily a deal-breaker for me, but it doesn’t add anything to the argument for Buehrle. He’s 65^th in WAR for pitchers, which seems too high to me. JAWS ranks Buehrle as the 90^th best starting pitcher, which feels about right. He’s Hall of Very Good.

Not in Buehrle’s favor is the fact that every starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame has had a 20-game winning season. Heck, even Babe Ruth and Dennis Eckersley have 20-game winning seasons. (Ruth had 2, Eck had 1.) The closest Buehrle got to 20 wins was in 2002, when he won 19 games. I don’t think that not having a 20-game win season means that Buehrle won’t get in the Hall of Fame, I’m just bringing it up as an interesting fact.

According to WAR, Buehrle’s best season was 2007. He went 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA over 201 innings. Huh? Why on earth was that his best season? Okay, so his ERA was 10th best in the AL in 2007. The White Sox team record in his starts in 2007 was 17-13. Not that impressive. Buehrle threw 20 Quality Starts that year, so 67% of his starts were Quality Starts. Buehrle had 5 other seasons where his Quality Start percentage was between 66% and 71%, so 67% wasn’t head and shoulders above his other good seasons. I have no idea why his 2007 season was more valuable than his 2001 season, where he went 16-8 with a 3.29 ERA and led the league in lowest WHIP. Granted, 2007 is only worth .1 more WAR than 2001, but still, I don’t get it.

Buehrle has a chance to stay on the ballot, but I don’t know if he will or not. The BBWAA voters have been hard on pitchers lately. The days of Jim Kaat and Tommy John hanging on the ballot for 15 years are over. (Yes, I know, players only stay on the ballot for 10 years now.) I think he’ll be lucky to get 5% of the vote.

A.J. Burnett: Not a Hall of Famer, but he had more strikeouts than you probably remember. 2,513, to be exact. Burnett only made one All-Star team, in his final season.

Michael Cuddyer: For Twins fans, this is a great ballot, featuring Cuddy, LaTroy Hawkins, and Torii Hunter. I always really liked Cuddyer. He was always smiling, he did magic tricks, he could play any position, and he was a big part of the resurgent Twins teams of the 2000’s. Plus, he won a batting title. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he’s a player I’ll always remember fondly. I saw his election to the Twins Hall of Fame in 2017, and that was a fun moment, to see Cuddyer be celebrated, and to see how moved he was by the ceremony. Cuddyer played every position on the diamond except for catcher and shortstop. I always wanted him to pull a Bert Campaneris/Cesar Tovar and play all 9 positions in a game.

Cuddyer became one of the more unlikely batting title winners when he hit .331 for the Rockies in 2013. His next-highest batting average for a full season (100 or more games) was .284.

Dan Haren: Not a Hall of Famer. Haren pitched for 8 teams, so that’s why I can’t picture him with one specific team. Haren had a solid career, winning 153 games. And he threw 50% more shutouts than Andy Pettitte. I love making fun of Pettitte’s ridiculously low career total of 4 shutouts. Oh, and Jerry Koosman? Yeah, he threw 29 more shutouts than Pettitte. Koosman threw 4 shutouts in a season 3 times.

LaTroy Hawkins: Not a Hall of Famer, but Hawkins had a longer career than you probably remember. As a Twins fan, I’ll always have a soft spot for LaTroy Hawkins. I remember him as a starting pitcher in the late 1990’s, when the Twins really had nothing to be excited about. Hawkins was a pretty bad starting pitcher, but he finally found his niche in 2000 when the Twins started using him as a reliever.

And I will always remember the LaTroy Hawkins Fan Club, who were there with their homemade cardboard sign at every Twins game for years. My friend and I would joke about how it was just one guy who was a huge LaTroy Hawkins fan. I learned later that wasn’t the case, there actually was a whole fan club of people, who remained devoted to Hawkins throughout his career. It’s a nice example of how simple acts of kindness can really make a difference in people’s lives, as both Hawkins and the members of the fan club have benefited from their friendship.

Hawkins is 10^th on the all-time list for games as a pitcher, with 1,042. I really wanted Hawkins to pitch for 5 more years and break Jesse Orosco’s record for most games by a pitcher, but that didn’t happen.

Obviously, just a tiny, tiny percentage of major league baseball players will make the Hall of Fame. So how do you measure your success in the game if you’re not one of those lucky few who make the Hall of Fame? I would suspect that a question athletes might ask themselves from Little League to the major leagues is “Did I get the most out of my talent?” If you got the most out of your talent, you can hopefully be happy with that. Maybe the journey ended in high school, maybe in college, maybe in the minor leagues. Maybe it ends with one appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot. For LaTroy Hawkins, the answer to the question “Did I get the most out of my talent?” is a resounding yes.

Tim Hudson: A more dominant version of Buehrle, Hudson finished with a winning percentage of .625 and an ERA of 3.49. I don’t think that Hudson needs to be in the Hall of Fame, but I think he might stay on the ballot, which would be fine with me. JAWS ranks Hudson as the 84^th best starting pitcher, which seems right to me. Like Buehrle, Hudson is below average for all the HOF stats on Baseball-Reference.

Hudson feels more dominant to me than Buehrle because he had more big seasons. Hudson only won 8 more games than Buehrle, but while Buehrle had 6 seasons in which he won 15 games or more, Hudson had 8 seasons. Buehrle just won 13 games every dang year.

Torii Hunter: I’ll address the parts of Torii Hunter that I don’t like first. Hunter has made homophobic remarks, saying that he wouldn’t want to play baseball with a gay teammate. I strongly disagree with Hunter’s remarks and his intolerance saddens me.

In 2020, Hunter revealed that he had a clause in his contracts forbidding a trade to the Red Sox, because of the bigotry he encountered in Boston as a visiting player. I’m saddened that the racism faced by so many Black players in Boston continues. Historical note: The Red Sox were the last baseball team to integrate, waiting 12 years after Jackie Robinson’s 1947 debut to grudgingly bring their first Black player, Elijah “Pumpsie” Green, to the majors in 1959.

As a Twins fan, I’ve always liked Torii Hunter. Like LaTroy Hawkins, Hunter was one of those players who came up when the Twins were a very crappy team. In 1999 and 2000, Hunter was one of the brighter spots on the team, and in 2001 he blossomed, along with the rest of the Twins. The Twins fell short of the playoffs in 2001, but after a winter filled with talk of possible contraction, they came roaring back in 2002 to win their first division title since 1991. Torii Hunter will always be a vivid part of my memories of the Twins from those years. Hunter was a lot like Kirby Puckett. Same positive attitude, same leadership in the clubhouse. Same great leaping catches in center field at the Metrodome.

But the Twins weren’t willing to pay Hunter the really big bucks, and so he signed as a free agent with the Angels after the 2007 season. At the time, I didn’t think it would be a very good deal for the Angels. No offense to Hunter, but I didn’t think he’d still be a productive player at age 36 in 2012, when his contract expired. All Hunter did at age 36 in 2012 was put up the best OPS+ of his career.

Hunter ended up having some of his best seasons in his 30’s, according to OPS+. Using OPS+, his best seasons were 2013, 2010, and 2009. Hunter also ended up posting the highest batting averages of his career in 2012 and 2013. I saw Hunter hit his 300^th home run in 2013 against the Twins at Target Field. Hunter returned to the Twins for 2015, his last season. He didn’t have a great year, as he only hit .240, but he still had enough pop in his bat to hit 22 home runs and drive in 81 RBIs. It was still fun to have Hunter back in Minnesota to finish his career.

Where does Hunter stand with his career stats? Well, as MLB Network pointed out, Hunter compares well with Andruw Jones in several categories: they were both 5-time All-Stars, Hunter’s OPS+ is 110, Jones’s OPS+ is 111, Jones won 10 Gold Gloves, Hunter won 9. Where they differ, however, is in defensive WAR. Jones has a whopping 24.4, bringing his career WAR to 62.7. Hunter has 4.0 defensive WAR, and 50.7 for his career.

Hunter ended up with 2,452 hits, 498 doubles, 353 home runs, 1,391 RBIs, and 1,296 runs scored. So, he qualifies for the Mark Taylor Nice Career award which I officially define for a position player as achieving one or more of the following: 1,000 runs, 2,000 hits, 200 home runs, and 1,000 RBI’s. Hunter gets a special bonus on his plaque for achieving all 4 of the criteria for a Nice Career. Hunter is in the Top 100 all-time for home runs, doubles, total bases, RBI’s, and extra base hits. But is any of that enough to get him into the Hall of Fame? I’d say no.

What we really need to look at are the HOF numbers for Hunter: he has no Black Ink, meaning he never led the league in any offensive category. His Gray Ink score, for seasons in the top 10 of offensive categories, is just 29, way below the average HOFer at 144. Hunter is way below in the HOF Monitor and HOF Standards scores as well. Hunter does have those 9 Gold Glove awards, but he never won an MVP. He was a player who was very good for a long time, but he doesn’t have a dominant peak.

JAWS ranks Hunter as the 34^th-best center fielder of all time, and while that’s impressive, it’s far below the HOF standard for the position. Center field is a tough position for the Hall of Fame. Of the top 30 center fielders, ranked by JAWS, one is Mike Trout, who is obviously still an active player, and one is Carlos Beltran, who is not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.

So, 28 of the top 30 center fielders have been retired for longer than 5 years and have appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot. Well, except for Willie Davis, who was somehow overlooked for the HOF ballot. It’s ridiculous to overlook a guy who played for 20 years and cranked out 2,561 hits. But I digress. Of those 28 players, 14 are in the Hall of Fame.

JAWS ranks Hunter right below Ellis Burks and Curtis Granderson, and right above Willie Wilson. Solid players, but not Hall of Famers. The most recent center fielders above Hunter in JAWS to hit the ballot and not make the Hall don’t offer much hope for Hunter. Kenny Lofton, ranked 10^th in JAWS, was one and done on the HOF ballot, as were Jim Edmonds and Johnny Damon. Bernie Williams survived his first year on the ballot, but not his second. Andruw Jones is on his 4^th year on the ballot, but he received less than 10% of the vote his first two years. I think those numbers tell us all we need to know about Hunter’s chances. Because this is such a weak year on the ballot, and Hunter is the best position player on the ballot, there’s a chance he might get more attention and receive more than 5% of the vote. But I think it’s extremely unlikely that Hunter would get more than 10% of the vote. And it’s possible he gets less than 5% and is one and done.

Aramis Ramirez: Had a very nice career, but not a Hall of Famer. Still, 386 home runs for a 3^rd baseman is very impressive. That’s 65^th on the all-time list. I think it’s the quietest 386 home runs anyone’s ever hit, too. It never seemed like Ramirez got a lot of press. He’s in 73rd place all-time in RBI’s, and in the Top 100 for doubles, total bases, and extra base hits. JAWS only ranks him as the 61^st best 3^rd baseman, even though he’s 10^th in games played at 3^rd base. That’s our sign that Ramirez wasn’t an elite player, despite his impressive offensive stats.

Ramirez hit 347 of his home runs while playing third base. That’s 7^th place, behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, Adrian Beltre, Chipper Jones, Graig Nettles, and Matt Williams. Not too shabby company to keep. I doubt Ramirez will get 5% of the vote, so he’ll have to be content with his Mark Taylor Nice Career award. Like Hunter, he’ll get a special bonus on his plaque for achieving all 4 statistical criteria.

Nick Swisher: Nope. Good OBP guy, though. Wow, he just fell off a cliff in 2014. Before that, he had 9 consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs. It’s fascinating how good solid players like Swisher can decline so quickly.

Shane Victorino: The Flyin’ Hawaiian! Victorino brings back fun memories of the Phillies’ 2008 Championship. I didn’t realize he was a 4-time Gold Glove winner. Honestly, Victorino was lucky he made this ballot, since he only had a 12-year career and appeared in just 1,299 games. Not a Hall of Famer, but a fun player to watch.

Barry Zito: Not a Hall of Famer. Boy, his career just fell apart when he joined the Giants. It’s probably too much hyperbole to say that Zito was on a Hall of Fame track when he left the A’s, but his stats looked good. His won-loss record was 102-63, for a .618 winning percentage, and his ERA+ was 125. In 7 seasons with the Giants, Zito only had one winning season, and one season where his ERA+ was over 100. With the Giants, Zito went 63-80, a .441 winning percentage, with an ERA of 4.62 and an ERA+ of 87. Zito was left off the Giants’ 2010 postseason roster. I felt bad for him at the time. Well, as bad as you can feel for someone who’s making $18.5 million a year to play baseball. Zito finally had a winning season in 2012, when he went 15-8. He made the postseason roster and won a World Series game as the Giants won the World Series.  

Zito sat out the 2014 season, and in 2015 the A’s signed him to a minor league contract. Zito spent most of the season at Triple-A, but he was called up in September. On September 26, 2015, Zito faced his former teammate Tim Hudson, as the A’s played the Giants. In the twilight of their careers, these two pitchers, mainstays of the A’s rotation in the early 2000’s, met again. Because life is not a movie, this meeting was anticlimactic. The game was a slugfest, with the Giants winning 14-10. Neither pitcher factored in the decision. Hudson lasted just an inning and a third, while Zito went 2 innings.

That takes care of the new players on the ballot. The only players that I think have a chance of getting 5% of the vote are Buehrle, Hudson, and Hunter.

Let’s look at the returning candidates from last year, in order of their percentage of the vote in 2020:

Curt Schilling: He’s a doofus, but a doofus who threw a baseball very, very well. Schilling received 70% of the vote last year, and I predict he’ll make the jump to 75% this year, his 9^th year on the ballot. Schilling should benefit from a weak incoming class. But just to be safe, he should probably mute his Twitter account until the results are announced.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens: Like last year, I’m going to discuss these two players together, since their Hall of Fame case is the same, and their vote totals have always been extremely close together. On a weak ballot in 2020, they moved up just 2%, putting Clemens at 61%, and Bonds at 60.7%. (Their vote totals actually dropped, but so did the number of voters, leading to an increase in their percentages.) This will be their 9^th year on the ballot, so they need a substantial boost to be elected. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that, even with a weak ballot, they’ll only gain 2-3%, making it even more unlikely that they’ll be voted in by the BBWAA.

Omar Vizquel: Little O has done quite nicely on the ballot, moving up to 52.6% last year. With this year’s weak ballot, I think he’ll move even closer to induction. I understand the arguments against Vizquel, but the dude played the most games at shortstop in baseball history, won 11 Gold Gloves, and got 2,877 hits. It’s fine if he gets in the Hall of Fame, call me the next time we get another shortstop on the ballot who won 11 Gold Gloves, got 2,800 hits, and broke Vizquel’s record for defensive games at shortstop.

Scott Rolen: Had a breakout year on the ballot, getting 35.3% of the vote, and establishing himself as a serious HOF candidate. I think he’ll add to his vote total for 2021, and I think he should be a Hall of Famer.

Billy Wagner: I have no feelings about Billy Wagner. Honestly, he was not a player I paid any attention to while he was playing. He was an excellent closer. If he gets in, fine, if he doesn’t, fine.

Gary Sheffield: Finally broke out of no man’s land, aka the Dave Concepcion zone on the ballot, getting 30.5% of the vote in 2020. I wouldn’t vote for Sheffield. Great hitter, poor fielder, plus steroid allegations, no thanks. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to him on this ballot.

Todd Helton: Great hitter, but how much of it was due to Coors Field?

Manny Ramirez: We’ll see if voters continue to punish players with steroid connections. My prediction is yes.

Jeff Kent: Finally got more than 25% of the vote. I think he should be in the Hall. This is Kent’s 8^th year on the ballot, so he needs a giant boost.

Andruw Jones: Finally gained some votes in 2020, getting 19.4% of the vote. It’ll be interesting to see if Jones make another jump this year. Will having Hunter on the ballot help Jones’ case?

Sammy Sosa: Just get off the ballot already.

Andy Pettitte: Ditto. Take your 4 shutouts and go.

Bobby Abreu: A fascinating Hall of Fame candidate. Unless you were a Bobby Abreu superfan, you’ve probably forgotten how good a player he was. Abreu was an odd mix of skills, which doesn’t always translate to getting into the Hall of Fame. I was just pleased that Abreu got more than 5% of the vote last year. I think at the very least he deserves to stay on the ballot, hopefully the weak ballot this year will allow more writers to consider Abreu.

This concludes my look at the 25 players on the 2021 BBWAA ballot. My prediction is that Curt Schilling will be the only player elected on this ballot.