2022 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Preview

 

Twins closer Joe Nathan is making his first appearance on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.

I’m way behind on my annual baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA ballot preview, but here it is. My prediction is that David Ortiz will be the only player elected to the Hall of Fame this year. Let’s take a look at the first-time candidates on the ballot.

Carl Crawford: He seemed like he might have been on the path to the Hall of Fame around 2010. But that was Crawford’s last great season, at age 28, and he quickly declined. In his prime Crawford was an exciting player, leading the league in triples and stolen bases 4 times each. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he had some nice seasons.

Prince Fielder: Another player who had several excellent seasons, but injuries left him short of the Hall of Fame. Fielder was always fun to watch. Amazingly, he ended up with 319 home runs, the exact same number as his dad, Cecil Fielder. The Fielders are the only father-son duo to both be league leaders in home runs.

Ryan Howard: He sure seemed like a Hall of Famer as the 2011 season was ending. I remember watching the play where Howard tore his Achilles tendon in the NLDS, the injury that ended his dominance as a player. I thought, “Man, why is he dogging it down the line? Oh shit, he’s hurt.” Howard was never the same after that. He still put up some nice career totals of 382 home runs and 1,194 RBI’s, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.

Tim Lincecum: He had some good years, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.

Justin Morneau: As a Twins fan, I always liked Justin Morneau. He was an excellent player, and he was the winner of the 2007 Home Run Derby. No one remembers that because everyone remembers Josh Hamilton’s mesmerizing mammoth blasts. Morneau was also an unlikely batting champion with Colorado in 2014. But that was Morneau’s last season as an everyday player. Injuries took a toll on Morneau, including a concussion that derailed his 2010 season. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but an excellent player nonetheless.

Joe Nathan: Another former Twin, Nathan was lights out as a closer. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but I sure liked having him in the bullpen.

David Ortiz: Also a former Twin. *Sigh*. I don’t want to talk about David Ortiz. I don’t want to talk about how the Twins released him after the 2002 season. I don’t want to talk about how he became a feared cleanup hitter, exactly the kind of player the Twins teams of the 2000’s were lacking. I don’t want to talk about how he helped the Red Sox to 3 World Series championships and hit .455 in those 3 World Series. I don’t want to talk about how David Ortiz became one of the most beloved characters in all of baseball. I don’t want to talk about how David Ortiz will most likely become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don’t want to talk about David Ortiz.

Jonathan Papelbon: Great closer. Probably not a Hall of Famer. I suppose it’s possible Papelbon and Nathan could get more than 5% of the vote and remain on the ballot. But I doubt they will.

Jake Peavy: Not a Hall of Famer, but he was a 2-time ERA leader, which is pretty impressive.

A.J. Pierzynski: Another former Twin. The Twins traded Pierzynski to the Giants, getting Joe Nathan as one of the players in return. Oddly enough for a player who played for 7 teams, it was the only time Pierzynski was traded. I liked Pierzynski when he played for the Twins, and then I hated him because he’s the kind of jerky needler who gets under the skin of the opposition. For a catcher who didn’t become a full-time player until he was 24, Pierzynski put up some good career numbers. He’s 9^th all-time in defensive games at catcher, and he collected 2,043 hits and hit 188 home runs. Not a Hall of Famer, but a guy who made the most of the talent he had.

Alex Rodriguez: It’s kind of ironic that now that Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds will be off the ballot, A-Rod is coming on. Let the steroid controversies continue! Obviously, for sheer talent, Rodriguez should be a Hall of Famer, just like Clemens and Bonds. But his case is complicated. I don’t think A-Rod will be elected this time, but he’ll certainly stay on the ballot.

Jimmy Rollins: I think Rollins should stay on the ballot, and I think he deserves serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. He was an excellent shortstop, putting up 15.9 DWAR and winning 4 Gold Gloves. Rollins was no slouch with the bat either, scoring 1,421 runs, collecting 2,455 hits, 511 doubles, 115 triples, 231 home runs, and 936 RBI’s. Rollins stole 470 bases, at an excellent 81.7% success rate. I think Rollins has a strong case for the Hall of Fame.

Mark Teixeira: Excellent player, but not a Hall of Famer.

Of the first timers on the ballot, I think Ortiz will be elected, or if not, he’ll certainly stay on the ballot for next year. The only other players I think will stay on the ballot are Alex Rodriguez and Jimmy Rollins.

Let’s look at the returning candidates, in order of how they finished on the 2021 ballot.

Curt Schilling: He was only 16 votes short of induction last year, but I don’t think Schilling will gain any support this year. This is his last year on the BBWAA ballot, so he’ll move to the Era Committees.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens: Their cases are exactly the same, and their vote totals have always moved up in tandem. I think they will fall short again, since they need an increase of more than 13%. Their totals will go up, but not enough, so they’ll get kicked into the Era Committees. It’ll be interesting to see how the Committees deal with Bonds and Clemens.

Scott Rolen: He moved above 50% last year, and I think he’ll make another jump ahead this year. I think he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.

Omar Vizquel: He fell slightly in 2021, probably because of domestic abuse allegations. I think his totals will fall again this year.

Billy Wagner: I have zero feelings about Billy Wagner. He’ll probably move up this year since almost everyone has the last couple of years.

Todd Helton: He will probably move above 50% this year, which bodes well for his future chances at induction.

Gary Sheffield: Moved above 40% in 2021, he only has 2 more years on the ballot, so it seems unlikely he’ll get in. But you never know.

Andruw Jones: Moved up to 33.9%, I think he’ll get another nice boost this year.

Jeff Kent: I don’t know why Kent doesn’t get more support. He’ll probably move up, but he only has 2 more years left on the ballot.

Manny Ramirez: Not close enough to make the jump.

Sammy Sosa: His last year on the BBWAA ballot, he’ll get kicked to the Era Committees along with Bonds and Clemens.

Andy Pettitte: So many t’s. Still hanging out in the Dave Concepcion zone.

Mark Buehrle: Got a solid 11% in his first year on the ballot. He’ll need a jump to be a viable candidate, but the lack of good starting pitchers on this ballot could help him if voters take another look at him.

Torii Hunter: Did better than I thought he would, getting 9.5% of the votes on his first ballot. The HOF Ballot Tracker has Torii at just 1.6%, so it will be a struggle for him to get above 5% and stay on the ballot. I think Hunter deserves to stay on the ballot, so I’ll be rooting for him.

Bobby Abreu: I just want him to stay above 5%. The Ballot Tracker has him at 10.9%, which would be a slight increase from 2021.

Tim Hudson: Just barely stayed on the ballot. I’d be fine with Hudson staying on the ballot.

We’ll see what happens tomorrow, but my prediction is we’ll only have one new Hall of Famer elected on this ballot: David Ortiz.