Contemporary Baseball Era Hall of Fame Ballot for 2023

Fred McGriff slugging a home run for the Blue Jays.

Dale Murphy socking a dinger for the Braves.

 

On Sunday, a committee will vote on the 2023 Contemporary Baseball Era ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame. There are 8 players on the ballot: Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro, and Curt Schilling. Well, there’s no controversy with any of these players, so there’s not much to discuss. Oh, wait, never mind. Can they just add Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa to the ballot so we just get all of the controversy out of the way, please? 

This will be a fascinating election, as it’s the first appearance of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling on an Era Committee ballot. They aged off the BBWAA ballot a year ago. All 3 players came close to being elected by the BBWAA, and I’m fascinated to see what the committee will do with them.  

I really have no idea how the committee will view all these controversial players. Will they elect players like Bonds and Clemens, who were indisputably two of the greatest players ever, but who have been dogged by questions of steroid use? Or will the committee avoid any controversy and pick players like Dale Murphy and Fred McGriff, who both have sterling reputations?  

Let’s look at the candidates, in alphabetical order: 

Albert Belle: His career was cut short by a hip injury, but at his peak, Belle was one of the best sluggers in baseball. You could make an argument for Belle in the short peak category—think sluggers like Hank Greenberg and Ralph Kiner. The difference is that Greenberg and Kiner were universally liked and respected, and Albert Belle’s abrasive personality rubbed everyone the wrong way. From sportswriters to teammates, there are no shortage of stories about Belle’s bad behavior. Belle is similar to Dick Allen—both were home run hitters with short careers who got bad press and were very controversial players. When I was a kid, my view of Albert Belle was that he was a great hitter, but he was a jerk. Since this ballot was announced, I read Belle’s Wikipedia bio, I read his SABR bio, looking for any evidence that I might have judged Belle too harshly when I was a kid. I read nothing to change my mind that Belle is a jerk. I don’t think there’s any compelling reason to put Belle in the Hall of Fame. 

Barry Bonds: Unquestionably one of the greatest hitters ever. If you think that Bonds started using steroids in 1998, you could even make the claim that Bonds would be a Hall of Famer if he had retired in 1998. I remember looking at Bonds’ numbers for the 1999 season, 34 home runs in just 102 games, and thinking, man, if he kept that pace for a full season, he’d have a hell of a year. Of course, Bonds was able to do that in 2001, when he set the single-season home run record by hitting 73 home runs. I think that Bonds was on steroids, and I wouldn’t vote for him for the Hall of Fame. That being said, if he had achieved what he did and been clean, of course he’d be a slam-dunk Hall of Famer. It’s hard to say that the all-time home run leader, a 7-time MVP, shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame. It’s hard to make value judgments about things I don’t know for sure. I assume Bonds was on steroids, because of all the allegations, and the fact that his head changed size, for crying out loud. But do I KNOW that, for an absolute fact? Nope.  

Roger Clemens: See Barry Bonds. As a kid growing up in the 1980’s, Clemens seemed like a sure-fire Hall of Famer to me. And then Clemens struggled from 1993-96. His record was 40-39 over those 4 seasons, and I thought, well, it looks like he just ran out of gas, too bad. And then, mysteriously, Clemens got his mojo back, winning 20 games with the Blue Jays in 1997 and 1998. Like Bonds, Clemens was improbably good late in his career, and allegations of steroid use have swirled around him ever since. I assume that Clemens was on steroids, but I don’t really know that. And like Bonds, if Clemens was clean, he would be an obvious Hall of Famer. 354 wins, 7 Cy Young Awards, 3rd on the all-time strikeout list, no question Hall of Famer.  

Don Mattingly: Donnie Baseball! One of the best players from 1984-1989. Mattingly’s numbers are strikingly similar to Kirby Puckett’s. Mattingly played in 1,785 games; Puckett played in 1,783. Puckett had slightly more runs scored and hits, while Mattingly had a few more RBI’s. They’re almost tied in extra base hits: Mattingly had 684, Puckett had 678. Their slash lines are very close. Mattingly: .307/.358/.471/.830. Puckett: .318/.360/.477/.837. The big difference in their careers is that back injuries severely hampered Mattingly from 1990 onwards. From 1984-1989, Mattingly had 5 seasons of 4 Offensive WAR or higher. From 1990-1995, the highest Offensive WAR Mattingly complied in a season was 2.4. From 1986-1989 Puckett had 4 seasons over 5 Offensive WAR. From 1990-1995, Pucket had 4 seasons of 4 Offensive WAR or higher—with his last season falling just short at 3.9 OWAR. Anyway, Mattingly and Puckett are very similar players, more similar than I realized. Like many of the players on this ballot, Mattingly was a short peak player. Mattingly was one of the best players in baseball for 6 seasons, so he wouldn’t be a bad choice for the Hall of Fame. But I don’t know if there’s any compelling reason to add him to the Hall of Fame.  

Fred McGriff: The Crime Dog! McGriff was always one of my favorite players, and I’m shocked he didn’t get more support for the Hall when he was on the BBWAA ballot. I assume that McGriff was clean, another thing that I don’t know for an absolute fact. But as far as I know, there have never even been any rumors about McGriff and PEDs. I always thought that McGriff would get more support from the writers if they were looking for 1990’s power hitters who were above suspicion.  

I think something that hurts McGriff’s case for the Hall of Fame is that because he played for so many different teams, it’s hard to craft a narrative for his career. McGriff never played for one team for longer than 5 seasons, and he played the most games of his career for the Atlanta Braves, just 636 games. I tend to think of McGriff as a Blue Jay, but he wasn’t there for the Jays’ back-to-back World Series victories in 1992 and 1993. It’s just easier to craft a narrative for players who spent the majority of their careers with one team. I would love to see McGriff get in the Hall of Fame, so I’m hoping he does well in the voting. 

Dale Murphy: Murphy is the oldest player on this ballot, making his MLB debut in 1976, 6 years before Don Mattingly in 1982. Like Mattingly, Murphy had a stretch as one of the best players in baseball. From 1982-87, Murphy was fantastic. His average OPS+ for those seasons was 145. But after a great 1987 season, Murphy’s production just fell off a cliff. From 1988 onwards, Murphy’s highest OPS+ for a season was 106. From 1982-87, Murphy’s lowest OWAR was 4.4. From 1988 to 1993, the highest OWAR he put up was 1.7. I remember my Dad saying in the late 1980’s that he thought Murphy had a shot at hitting 500 home runs. Murphy ended up retiring in 1993 with 398 home runs.  

I wonder if the election of short peak guys like Gil Hodges and Tony Oliva will help Dale Murphy? I doubt committee members spend a lot of time sitting around saying, “Well, the committee last year elected Tony O and Gil Hodges, so we should put Dale Murphy in too.”  

Is there a compelling argument to put Dale Murphy in the Hall of Fame? I don’t know, but I’d sure like to see him in the Hall of Fame. From everything I’ve read about Dale Murphy he sounds like a fantastic person, and his off the field reputation is impeccable. Murphy’s squeaky-clean image could help him, especially in contrast to all the controversial players on this ballot. It feels weird to say that I’d rather see Dale Murphy in the Hall of Fame than Barry Bonds, when I know that Bonds was overall a better player than Murphy. Shouldn’t it be an impersonal discussion of the stats and what the players did on the field, without personality entering into it? But the reality of life is that personality does enter into it. Personality affects the kind of player and person you are.  

Rafael Palmeiro: Would have been an easy Hall of Famer except for the whole steroids thing. Palmeiro was kind of like Eddie Murray—both players never won an MVP award, but they were rock steady. Palmeiro was only a 4-time All-Star, a super low total for a guy who banged out 3,020 hits and slugged 569 home runs. I always liked Palmeiro when he was playing, and I was so disappointed when he failed a drug test in 2005. Looking at Palmeiro’s stats, I see he played in 31 games in independent ball in 2018. At age 53, Raffy hit 6 home runs, and batted .301 with a .424 OBP. Dang.  

Unlike Bonds and Clemens, Palmeiro only stayed on the BBWAA ballot for 4 years before falling under 5% and dropping off the ballot, so I don’t think he has much of a chance at being elected this year. 

Curt Schilling: Oh geez. Saving the best for last. Schilling is a jerk and an idiot, but he was a great pitcher. Schilling is a bit different from the other controversial players on this list, as he hasn’t been accused of cheating—all of the controversy surrounding Schilling has taken place off of the baseball diamond.  

So, there you have it, 8 super talented baseball players. My prediction, which will probably be wrong, is that the committee plays it safe and elects Dale Murphy and Fred McGriff.