Thoughts on the 2026 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2026 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was recently released, and here’s my assessment of the candidates. It’s one of the weakest groups of first-time candidates in a while, so it should be an interesting election. Let’s take a look at the returning players, in order of their 2025 vote totals. 

Carlos Beltran: He was only 19 votes short last year, so he’ll make it into the Hall this year. Beltran was probably a first-ballot guy before the 2017 Astros cheating scandal put a blemish on his resume. I think he should be in, but the Astros scandal really disappointed me. I’m fine that Beltran had to wait a few years.  

Andruw Jones: This is Jones’ 9th year on the ballot. Jones got 66.2% of the votes in 2025, and I think he’ll get in this year, especially considering how weak the incoming class is. Jones was an awesome player in his prime, but he suddenly declined after his age 30 season in 2007, and his final season was 2012. Jones is a player that I’ve changed my mind about. When he first debuted on the ballot, I don’t think I would have voted for him, but now I would.  

Chase Utley: With 39.8% of the vote in 2025, Utley had a nice increase in his second year on the ballot. I don’t think he’ll get into the Hall of Fame this year, but I predict he’ll get over 50%, making him almost a lock to be elected.  

Alex Rodriguez: After the 2025 results were announced in January, I boldly predicted that A-Rod will not be voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA. If A-Rod is going to start seriously picking up votes and make a drive towards election, a year like this one is crucial. If he picks up a huge number of votes during a weak incoming class, that bodes well for him. If his support remains steady without meaningful growth, it means he won’t get in. This is his 5th year on the ballot, so we will be halfway through his BBWAA candidacy. A-Rod was at 37.1% of the vote last year, just short of halfway to 75%.  

Manny Ramirez: Manny is in his 10th and final year on the ballot, so he will pick up some votes, but he won’t get in.  

Andy Pettitte: He finally had a meaningful gain last year, up to 27.9%. This is his 8th year on the ballot, so he’s running out of time. I predict he’ll see a decent gain this year.  

Felix Hernandez: Debuted strongly last year with 20.6%, which was higher than I would have expected. For me, King Felix falls short of the Hall of Fame. Yes, from 2009 to 2015 he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. But, similar to Fernando Valenzuela on the Era Committee ballot, there’s just very little value outside of his peak seasons. Because this year is a weak ballot, Hernandez might pick up a decent number of votes, making him a more serious candidate.  

Bobby Abreu: This will be his 7th year on the ballot. Last year he got his highest vote total ever, with 19.5%. Abreu is running out of time to get to 75%, but I hope he’ll get more votes this year. Abreu is one of those players that I like a lot, but it’s hard to imagine him as a Hall of Famer because he just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. He was never a huge star, but he was an excellent player with a great mix of skills. I think he deserves to stay on the ballot, and he’s the kind of player who might be elected by an Era Committee one day. 

Jimmy Rollins: This will be his 5th year on the ballot. I think Rollins should be a Hall of Famer. Look at his offensive numbers for a shortstop: the dude could flat-out rake, and he had good power too. Rollins deserves to make a sizable jump in votes this year.  

Omar Vizquel: In his 9th year on the ballot. I’ll be glad when we’re done with him.  

Dustin Pedroia: Had a nice debut in 2025 with 11.9%, a remarkable total for someone who had such a short career. For me, Pedroia is not a Hall of Famer. He had some great seasons, but his career was simply too short. He only appeared in 1,512 games. I feel like sometimes players like Pedroia drop in their second year on the ballot, so we’ll see what happens. 

Mark Buehrle: I’m fine with Buehrle hanging on the ballot, but I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer. Thinking about it more, I’m really puzzled why Buehrle is on his 6th year on the ballot, and Tim Hudson dropped off after only 2 years. Hudson has a better winning percentage, a lower ERA, and more strikeouts.  

Francisco Rodriguez: To quote Buddy the elf, “Francisco, that’s fun to say!” That’s all I have to say about Francisco Rodriguez.  

David Wright: Returns for a 3rd year on the ballot. It will be interesting to see if his vote totals go up or down. He’s a great example of a short peak player.  

Torii Hunter: My man Torii just barely squeaked by last year, with 5.1% of the vote. I think Hunter deserves better, and I’m hopeful he’ll get more attention, since this is such a weak year. I’m not going to argue that he should be in the Hall of Fame, but he’s the kind of player who would typically get between 10-20% of the vote. This is his 6th year on the ballot, so I’m happy he’s made it this long, but I hope he gets further consideration.  

Okay, now on to the new candidates. I don’t think anyone in this group is a Hall of Famer. I don’t even think anyone in this group is a lock to get 5% of the vote and stay on the ballot. I think the only possibilities to get 5% of the vote are Cole Hamels, Edwin Encarnacion, and Nick Markakis. 

For pitchers, we have Gio Gonzalez, Rick Porcello, and Cole Hamels. Gonzalez and Porcello had some good years. Hamels had some great seasons during his peak, including 2008 when he led the Phillies to the World Championship, and was named MVP of the NLCS and the World Series. I’ll admit, since my favorite baseball player is Steve Carlton, I am partial to tall left-handers who pitched the Phillies to the World Series. For me, Hamels’ career is just too short, falling shy of benchmarks like 200 wins. Hamels ended his career with just 163 wins. We’ll see what writers think of Hamels’ Hall of Fame case. 

For batters, we have Ryan Braun, who might have been a serious candidate if it wasn’t for his 2013 suspension for steroid use. I don’t think Braun will get 5% of the vote. There’s Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, and Hunter Pence. All solid players for a while, and Pence in particular was always fun to watch. And Matt Kemp, who was a stud in 2011 and then just fizzled out. Edwin Encarnacion mashed for the Blue Jays during the 2010’s, slugging 424 home runs during his career. There’s a chance Encarnacion could get over 5% of the vote, but there are a lot of guys recently with 400+ home runs who haven’t lasted more than 1 ballot. Nick Markakis was a solid hitter for his whole career, kind of like a Michael Young-type hitter. Good average, lots of doubles, not a huge number of home runs. Markakis was only an All-Star once, in 2018. He ended his career with some solid totals: 1,119 runs scored, 2,388 hits, 514 doubles, 1,046 RBI’s, and a .288 batting average. Solid, but not Hall of Fame.  

I predict that the BBWAA will elect Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones.  

Thoughts on the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Hall of Fame ballot was recently released. It features 8 players: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Valenzuela. It’s the first appearance on an Era Committee ballot for Delgado, Kent, Sheffield, and Valenzuela.  

Let’s start with Bonds and Clemens, since their cases are the same. They both received fewer than 4 votes on their first Era Committee ballot in 2023. I don’t think they’ll get in this year. Do they deserve to get in? Of course, if they had played clean and their accomplishments were untainted by performance enhancing drugs. But that wasn’t the case. I don’t understand why Bonds and Clemens don’t just tell the truth about their steroid use. Well, I do; denial is a powerful thing. But until they come clean, their reputations will always be sullied. Some people say, “You can’t tell the story of baseball without Bonds and Clemens!” They’re right. And you can still find artifacts from Bonds and Clemens’ careers in the Hall of Fame. They just don’t have plaques in the Hall of Fame Plaque Gallery. The new rule for the Era Committee this year is that if candidates receive fewer than 5 votes, they will not be eligible for the ballot the next time the Contemporary Era is looked at. This means Bonds and Clemens might not make it onto the 2029 ballot.  

Carlos Delgado was a great slugger for the Blue Jays. He had some monster years, like 2003 when he led the AL in RBI’s with 145. Delgado put up some excellent career numbers: 473 home runs, 1,512 RBI’s, but he never won an MVP award and was only a 2-time All-Star. Delgado was on a Hall of Fame trajectory when he suffered a hip injury in 2009 that essentially ended his career. He only appeared on the BBWAA ballot once in 2015, and he dropped off after getting just 3.8% of the vote. I always liked Delgado, so I’m happy to see him get another chance at the Hall. That being said, I don’t think Delgado really needs to be in the Hall of Fame.  

Jeff Kent should be in the Hall of Fame, in my opinion. Kent has the most home runs of any second baseman, with 351 of his 377 homers coming at second. Kent’s HOF candidacy was finally starting to gain some traction during his last few years on the ballot, and in his last appearance on the BBWAA ballot, he got 46.5% of the vote, his highest total. DWAR doesn’t rank Kent highly, so that might hurt his case. But still, Kent got 2,461 hits, 377 home runs, 1,518 RBI’s, and finished with a .290 batting average, phenomenal numbers for a second baseman.  

Don Mattingly was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. One of the best players in the game from 1984 to 1989, Mattingly’s career was derailed by back injuries. Mattingly’s career batting average through the 1989 season was .323. After 1989, Mattingly only batted .300 once more, hitting .304 in the strike-shortened 1994 season. From 1984-1989, Mattingly had 5 seasons of 4 Offensive WAR or higher. From 1990-1995, the highest Offensive WAR Mattingly complied in a season was 2.4. He was still a good hitter, but he wasn’t the superstar he was in the 1980’s.  

Mattingly is very similar to Kirby Puckett, with the difference being that Puckett’s value was spread out more evenly throughout his career, while Mattingly’s value was concentrated in his 6 great seasons from 1984-1989.  

Everybody likes Don Mattingly, and for fans of my era, (I was born in 1981) Donnie Baseball holds a special place in our collective memories and nostalgia. Mattingly’s rookie cards, especially his 1984 Donruss card, were like Holy Grails for collectors during the 1980’s. To give you some idea of the hold Don Mattingly has on 1984 cards, 95,000 1984 Topps cards have been sent to PSA for grading. Of those 95,000 cards, 24,884 of them are Don Mattingly’s rookie card. That’s amazing. Like every other baseball fan of my age, I was thrilled when Mattingly finally made it to the World Series this year as a coach for the Blue Jays.  

I’d be fine with Mattingly getting into the Hall of Fame, but if he gets in, then Dale Murphy really needs to get in as well. And maybe the mustachioed first baseman of the 1980’s from New York’s other baseball team should get in too. (Keith Hernandez, if you didn’t pick up my reference.)  

Dale Murphy, like Mattingly, had a stretch where he was one of the best players in baseball. From 1982-87, Murphy was fantastic. His average OPS+ for those seasons was 145. Murphy won back-to-back MVP awards in 1982 and 1983. But after a great 1987 season, Murphy’s production just fell off a cliff. From 1988 onwards, Murphy’s highest OPS+ for a season was 106. From 1982-87, Murphy’s lowest OWAR was 4.4. From 1988 to 1993, the highest OWAR he put up was 1.7. I remember my dad saying in the late 1980’s that he thought Murphy had a shot at hitting 500 home runs. Murphy ended up retiring in 1993 with 398 home runs.  

Is there a compelling argument to put Dale Murphy in the Hall of Fame? I don’t know, but I’d sure like to see him in the Hall of Fame. From everything I’ve read about Dale Murphy, he sounds like a fantastic person, and his off-the-field reputation is impeccable. Murphy’s squeaky-clean image could help him. It feels weird to say that I’d rather see Dale Murphy in the Hall of Fame than Barry Bonds, when I know that Bonds was overall a better player than Murphy. Shouldn’t it be an impersonal discussion of the stats and what the players did on the field, without personality entering into it? But the reality of life is that personality does enter into it. Personality affects the kind of player and person you are. And I’d rather give Dale Murphy a couple of extra points for being a great person than elect jerks like Bonds and Clemens, where you have to say, “He was a great player, but not a great person.”  

The Era Committees have started electing more players who had fantastic peaks but didn’t reach some of the counting stats that have usually guaranteed election to the Hall of Fame. In just the last few years, we’ve seen 3 players get in with fewer than 2,000 career hits: Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, and Dick Allen. And the BBWAA might elect Andruw Jones this year, who fell short of 2,000 hits. This should work in favor of players like Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, who had amazing peaks, but fell short of major milestones like 2,500 hits.  

Gary Sheffield is a player that I have mixed feelings about. He was a great hitter, and a terrible fielder. As I’ve written before about Sheffield, he’s in the very strange position of being punished for presumed steroid use without ever having failed a drug test. Like Jeff Kent, Sheffield finally started to gain traction on the BBWAA ballot in his final years, peaking at 63.9% of the vote in 2024. Players who have so much support on the BBWAA ballot usually get voted in by the Era Committees, so we’ll see what happens with Sheffield.  

Fernando Valenzuela captured the hearts of baseball fans in 1981 when he got off to an 8-0 start, throwing an incredible 5 shutouts during his first 8 games. During the strike-shortened 1981 season, Fernando led the NL with 11 complete games, 8 shutouts, 192.1 innings pitched, and 180 strikeouts. He won the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young Award, and he’s still the only pitcher to ever do that. To top it all off, Valenzuela went 3-1 in the expanded 1981 postseason as the Dodgers won the World Series. Fernandomania ruled Los Angeles, and Valenzuela became the rare baseball player to become a cultural phenomenon.  

It would be hard to overstate the impact Fernando Valenzuela had on baseball in the early 1980’s. Major League baseball has had many great Latin stars after the game finally integrated, but Fernando was by far the biggest star to come from Mexico. Valenzuela’s impact is still felt in Dodger Stadium a year after his death, as huge murals of Fernando decorate the stadium.  

Valenzuela made 6 straight All-Star teams from 1981 to 1986. From 1982 to 1987, Fernando never pitched fewer than 251 innings in a season, and he averaged an incredible 266 innings a season! After 1987, which was his age 26 season, Valenzuela's career record was 113-82, putting him ahead of many Hall of Famers at that same age. In 1988, he suffered a shoulder injury and missed the Dodgers’ postseason, which saw them win another World Series. It’s perhaps hyperbole to say that Fernando was never the same pitcher after 1987, but his record for the rest of his career was 60-71.  

Fernando ended his career with the Cardinals in 1997, with a career record of 173-153, 113 complete games, 31 shutouts, 2,930 innings pitched, and 2,074 strikeouts. He didn’t get much attention from the BBWAA, only lasting 2 years on the ballot.  

Should Valenzuela join the Hall of Fame? I’d say no. Fernando has a compelling story, and he was a charismatic pitcher who enjoyed several excellent seasons. But a career record of 173-153 just isn’t worthy of induction. Baseball Reference lists the 10 most similar pitchers to Valenzuela: excellent pitchers like Ken Holtzman, Camilo Pascual, Mark Langston, Frank Viola, and Dave Stieb. None of them are in the Hall of Fame or got anywhere close to being voted in by the writers. Another obvious comparison to Valenzuela is his Dodgers teammate, Orel Hershiser, who isn’t among the 10 most similar pitchers, but who had a similar career.  

If I had a vote on this committee, I would vote for Jeff Kent, Don Mattingly, and Dale Murphy. It’s hard to predict what Era committees will do, but I’ll predict they elect Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy to the Hall of Fame.