2020 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame Results

Larry Walker and Derek Jeter, members of the 2020 Hall of Fame class.

Well, I was right in half of my prediction for the 2020 Baseball Hall of Fame results. Of course, the part I got right was the easy part—everyone knew Derek Jeter was going to sail into the Hall of Fame. (I was wrong about Curt Schilling making the jump this year.) It’s amazing that Jeter was just one ballot away from being the Hall’s second unanimous inductee. I wonder if there will be another unanimous inductee someday. Well, probably when Mike Trout hits the ballot. I also think Ichiro could have a chance at being a unanimous choice. 

Larry Walker made the unlikely 20% jump to induction on his final ballot. On a weak ballot, voters must have taken another look at his stats. Walker is one of the most amazing turnarounds in the history of Hall of Fame voting. In 2017, Walker got just 21.9% of the vote, which means that in the space of only three years, Walker went from not being named on more than 75% of the ballots to being named on 76.6% of the ballots this year. My wife made the point that the Hall of Fame voting is proof that people can actually change their minds. 

If you’re obsessed with the baseball Hall of Fame, one of the best websites out there is Chris Bodig’s Cooperstown Cred. Year-round Bodig writes in-depth articles about the Hall of Fame cases for various players, from slam-dunks like Derek Jeter to super long shots like Dave Stieb. His article on Larry Walker is an excellent deep dive into Walker’s stats. For me, the most shocking thing is Walker’s home/road splits during the time he played for the Rockies. Walker’s slash line on the road was a decent .281/.386/.518. At Coors Field, he turned into a combination of Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth, slashing .383/.463/.713! It feels wrong to punish Walker simply because of how good he was at Coors Field, but it’s bizarre what an extreme home/road split he has. 

As I’ve written before, I just don’t have strong feelings about Larry Walker. I’m happy for him that he got in, he has 72.7 WAR, and JAWS ranks him as the 10^th best right fielder ever, so good for him. He just never became one of my favorite players. 

Of the returning candidates on the ballot, every single player increased their percentage of the vote this year, which leads me to the obvious conclusion that voters took this opportunity to examine their statistics even more. I wonder if that’s ever happened before in Hall of Fame voting, that every returning player increased their percentage of the vote? 

Curt Schilling made an almost 10% jump, up to 70% of the vote, which means he’ll likely get in next year. I’m no fan of Schilling as a person, but as a player he deserves to be in. 

There were 397 ballots this year, down from 425 in 2019. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens actually got fewer votes than they did in 2019, but their percentages increased slightly. On a weak ballot, they gained less than 2%, so that might not bode well for their possible induction by the BBWAA. They have two years left on the ballot, and they need a 15% boost. It could still happen, but this year’s results make it seem less likely. I’m super curious as to what an Era Committee would do with Bonds and Clemens. Would former players vote them in, or keep them out? I still think that part of the Hall of Fame’s reason for changing the time players spend on the ballot from 15 years to 10 was an attempt to get the debate about steroid guys like Bonds and Clemens over with faster. The change from 15 years to 10 has worked out well, as it’s just forced the sportswriters to not dither around so much. 

Omar Vizquel moved up almost 10%, from 42.8% to 52.6%, so that bodes well for his future chances. Vizquel is only on his 3^rd ballot, so he has plenty of time to get to 75% of the vote. I’m not going to passionately argue for Vizquel as a Hall of Famer, but I’m fine with him getting into the Hall. He was obviously a very poor hitter, but getting close to 3,000 hits helps him, despite all the outs he made along the way. Vizquel isn’t as good as the elite shortstops in the Hall, but he stuck around forever. Vizquel will be getting in because he got close to 3,000 hits, played the most games at shortstop of anyone, and won 11 Gold Gloves. He’s 9^th all-time in defensive WAR, with 29.5. (Exactly 10 points behind Mark Belanger, the ultimate good-field, no-hit shortstop.) 

Scott Rolen broke out on this ballot, getting 35.3% of the vote, which takes him out of the no man’s land zone and into the “serious candidate” zone. Rolen more than doubled his percentage from 2019, and another weak ballot year in 2021 could help him. I think Rolen should be a Hall of Famer. He has 70.2 WAR, and JAWS ranks him as the 10^th best third baseman ever. Third base has been a weird position for the Hall of Fame. Ron Santo, who should have been a slam-dunk HOFer, didn’t get in during his lifetime, while George Kell, who is way below the standards, got voted in by the Veteran’s Committee in 1983. Kell was a 10-time All-Star who won a batting title, and finished with a .306 career batting average, so I guess that outweighed his total lack of power: just 79 career home runs. If Rolen gets elected, maybe the Era Committees will start paying attention to my two favorite third basemen who have been overlooked by the Hall: Graig Nettles and Buddy Bell. 

Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield also broke out, as they both finished above 30% of the vote for the first time. I don’t have strong feelings about either player. I’m conflicted on how the Hall of Fame should treat closers. Before they were in the Hall, I thought Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage should be in the Hall. Then after they got in, I thought, “Meh, those are kind of weak choices.” The role of a closer keeps changing, so it’s hard to evaluate and compare them. With Sheffield getting above 30%, maybe we’ll be confronted with the burning question: which team would be represented on his Hall of Fame plaque?? How could he possibly choose? Fun fact about Gary Sheffield: he finished his career with 80.8 offensive WAR, and -27.7 defensive WAR. Yikes!

Todd Helton went up to 29.2% of the vote, so be prepared for more debates about the Coors Field effect. 

In his 7^th year on the ballot, Jeff Kent finally made it over 25% of the vote for the first time. I’ve always been surprised at how little support Kent has received for the Hall of Fame. Chris Bodig does an excellent deep dive on Kent’s career, and comes up with some of the reasons why Kent’s candidacy has never caught on. Maybe Kent can hope for a Larry Walker-like surge in his last three years on the ballot. In JAWS, Kent is ranked 20^th among second basemen, which is below the HOF standard, but he’s still ahead of several HOFers, like Billy Herman, Bobby Doerr, Nellie Fox, and Tony Lazzeri. The standard for second basemen is also a little high because there are four second basemen who have over 100 WAR: Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, and Joe Morgan. 

Andruw Jones had been barely hanging on the ballot, but this year he moved up to 19.4% of the vote. That gives him some security of staying on the ballot. I don’t think Jones should be a Hall of Famer, but I don’t have any problem with him remaining on the ballot and letting writers discuss his candidacy more. If you like your HOFers to have peak value, Jones certainly had that. It’ll be interesting to see if Jones has a similar vote gain in 2021. 

Even Sammy Sosa increased his percentage this year, moving up to 13.9%, putting him firmly in Dave Concepcion territory. 

Bobby Abreu was the only first-time candidate who will remain on the ballot for 2021, and he just barely made it, getting 5.5% of the vote. I think Abreu deserves to be considered as a serious candidate. As I wrote in my ballot preview, Abreu was an unusual player who combined a lot of different skills. Abreu doesn’t have one stat that really screams Hall of Famer. As Chris Bodig wrote in his piece on Abreu, it’s hard to make an elevator pitch for Abreu. 

In a way, Bobby Abreu shouldn’t make the Hall of Fame. It would ruin his reputation as an under the radar guy if he made the Hall of Fame. He should just be this low-key guy that only serious baseball fans know about. There won’t be any biopics of Bobby Abreu, his legend will spread by word of mouth, and through obscure blog posts. One day, years from now, you’ll go to the Hall of Fame and ask about Bobby Abreu, and they’ll point you over to an old man who’ll say, “Bobby Abreu? No one’s asked about him in 30 years!” And then he’ll spin you a tale of Bobby Abreu’s amazing career, and how he played in more than 150 games for 13 seasons in a row. 

Paul Konerko got just 2.5% of the vote, so he will drop off the ballot. Konerko always seemed like a nice guy, even when he was pulverizing my Minnesota Twins. I guess I can’t prove to you that Paul Konerko is a nice guy, but I’ve never heard any stories about him being a jerk, so I assume he’s a decent fellow. I’m not going to say that Paul Konerko should be a Hall of Famer, but he seems like someone who should have stayed on the ballot. He played his entire career for one team, except for 81 games at the start of his career. (There’s definitely a Hall of Fame bonus for being strongly identified with one team.) Konerko helped the White Sox win the World Series in 2005, he was never connected to PEDs, and he seemed to be a nice guy, so I would imagine that sportswriters liked him. When you look at those peripheral things, in addition to his 439 home runs and his 1,412 RBIs, I’m surprised he dropped off the ballot. He seems like a guy who would hang out in the Dave Concepcion zone, getting 10-20% of the vote every year. I thought Konerko really boosted his Hall of Fame chances after his strong seasons in his mid-30’s from 2010-2012, but I guess I was wrong. 

In addition to Konerko, three other players with more than 400 home runs also dropped off the ballot: Jason Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, and Adam Dunn. I’m not that surprised these three players didn’t get 5% of the vote. 

One of my favorite players, Raul Ibanez, received just one vote for the Hall of Fame. However, he did receive just enough votes to become a member of the Turtle Club. Despite not getting 400 plate appearances in a season until his age 30 season in 2002, Ibanez still met all four official Mark Taylor criteria for having a “nice career,” which I define for a position player as achieving one or more of the following: 1,000 runs, 2,000 hits, 200 home runs, and 1,000 RBI’s. Fun fact: Raul Ibanez was never traded. He changed franchises seven times in his career without being traded. I wonder if that’s a record. 

This concludes my recap of the 2020 BBWAA ballot results. Looking ahead, the 2021 ballot is another pretty weak one, so we’ll see if some of these players continue to gain and get closer to eventual election.