2022 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Results

 

Hall of Famer David Ortiz. His shirt is amazing.

Well, my prediction earlier this week was correct: David Ortiz was the only player elected on the 2022 Hall of Fame BBWAA ballot. Ortiz was named on 77.9% of the ballots, just above the 75% needed for election. Let’s go down the ballot and see how everyone did. Overall, it was not an exciting ballot. In contrast to the past few years, where just about everyone has gained support, some players held steady, and one saw a huge decline.

Barry Bonds: He received 260 votes, up from 248 in 2021, for 66% of the vote. My prediction proved correct, that Bonds and Roger Clemens wouldn’t be able to make the jump in their final year. I’m fascinated to see how the Era Committee will handle Bonds and Clemens. I can see it going either way: contemporaries of Bonds and Clemens might say “They were so amazing, they deserve to be in,” or they might say “They cheated, no way.” As great as Bonds and Clemens were, I’m fine with them being kept out of the Hall of Fame because I think they’re both cheaters.

Roger Clemens: He received 257 votes, up from 247 in 2021, for 65.2% of the vote. See my above comment on Barry Bonds.

Scott Rolen: Had a nice increase this year, moving up from 52.9% in 2021 to 63.2%. I think Rolen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, he’s one of the best 3^rd basemen ever, and it seems like the writers are finally starting to understand that. Rolen still has another 5 years left on the BBWAA ballot, so he should make it to 75% without a problem.

Curt Schilling: Saw his support drop from 71.1% last year to 58.6% this year, his final year on the BBWAA ballot. Schilling is a total jerk. After last year’s results, he asked to be removed from the BBWAA ballot, but no one listened to him because he’s a jerk and a whiner. Schilling will now be considered by the Era Committees, which will have their hands full of excellent candidates with glaring problems.

Todd Helton: Moves up to 52% in his 4^th year on the ballot, which bodes well for his eventual induction. I don’t have strong feelings about Helton.

Billy Wagner: Moves up to 51%. Wagner only has 3 more years left on the BBWAA ballot, so the clock is ticking. But stranger things have happened, so he could still get in. I don’t have strong feelings about Wagner or his candidacy. Judging closers is a hard thing.

Andruw Jones: Saw another nice increase in his totals, moving up from 33.9% in 2021 to 41.4% this year. Jones has 5 years left on the ballot, so it’s possible that he keeps increasing his totals and gets in. He’s one of the ultimate peak value players-he was fantastic, and then his career just imploded. And now that Tony Oliva was elected, we finally have a post-expansion Hall of Famer with fewer than 2,000 career hits, which may bode well for Jones’ chances. But I don’t know how many BBWAA voters are sitting around saying “Tony Oliva got in? Now I can FINALLY vote for Andruw Jones!” I mean, it’s possible.

Gary Sheffield: He lost 3 votes from last year, but his percentage stayed the same, 40.6%. That doesn’t bode well for his chances, as he only has 2 years left on the BBWAA ballot. Great hitter, but a terrible defender.

Alex Rodriguez: Debuted with 34.3% of the vote, a solid start for his HOF candidacy. However, Bonds and Clemens both debuted with slightly higher percentages (36% and 37%) and never got in. The real question is, will A-Rod gain next year? If you were tired of the controversy over Bonds and Clemens, now you can enjoy the A-Rod show for the next 10 years.

Jeff Kent: Lost 1 vote, but his percentage slightly increased thanks to fewer total ballots. Kent only has 1 year left on the BBWAA ballot, and I don’t think he’s going to make a 40+ percentage point gain. Too bad because I think he’s deserving of a spot in the Hall. One of the best offensive second basemen ever.

Manny Ramirez: Moves up less than 1% point. Manny has 4 more years on the ballot, and I don’t see him getting in.

Omar Vizquel: Dropped like a rock from 49.1% in 2021 to just 23.9% this year. The reason? Assault allegations by Vizquel’s ex-wife that first surfaced around the time of voting in 2020, and now there are new allegations of sexual harassment from a batboy from the Birmingham Barons, the team that Vizquel managed in 2019. I never thought Omar Vizquel would be such a subject of scandal. I’d say his chances of being elected are slim and none. It’s a huge fall for a player who was named on more than 50% of the ballots in 2020. At that time, it seemed like Vizquel had a surprisingly good chance of making the Hall of Fame.

Sammy Sosa: Never made it close to getting into the Hall. Sosa now drops off the BBWAA ballot to be considered by the Era Committee. I doubt he’ll make it in through the Era Committee.

Andy Pettitte: Dropped to 10.7% of the vote. Pettitte was a very good pitcher, but he just wasn’t as dominant as the truly great pitchers of his era. It’s interesting that he lost votes on a ballot with very few viable starting pitcher candidates.

Jimmy Rollins: Debuts with 9.4% of the vote. I’m happy that Rollins will stay on the ballot for next year. I think he should be a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame. He was an excellent hitting shortstop, and a very good fielder as well. The ballot will unclog in 2023, so perhaps Rollins will draw more support.

Bobby Abreu: Lost 1 vote, but he stays on the ballot with 8.6% of the vote. I think Abreu should be a serious candidate, and like Rollins hopefully he’ll draw more support on a less-crowded ballot. More writers should look at Abreu’s interesting career.

Mark Buehrle: In his 2^nd year on the ballot, Buehrle drops from 11% to just 5.8%. It was a weak year for starting pitchers on this ballot, so I thought that could give Buehrle a boost, but that didn’t happen. I don’t really think Buehrle’s a Hall of Famer, but he was a good solid pitcher for many years.

Torii Hunter: Also in his 2^nd year on the ballot, Hunter dropped from 9.5% to just hanging on at 5.3%. I was happy that Hunter was above 5% last year, but a little surprised that he was close to 10%. But why did his support almost drop in half this year? Are there voters who only vote for some players their first year on the ballot? Perhaps Hunter will get more support with a weak class coming up in 2023. I don’t think Hunter is truly a Hall of Famer, but he was always one of my favorite players, so I hope he stays on the ballot.

Everyone below this point got fewer than 5% of the vote, and will drop off the ballot:

Joe Nathan: A great closer for the Twins, Nathan was one of the best closers in baseball from 2004-2013. His ERA with the Twins was a miniscule 2.16. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS score ranks Nathan as the 8^th best relief pitcher of all-time.

Tim Hudson: Was barely above 5% in 2021, his first year on the ballot, and this year he dropped to just 3%. I don’t think Hudson’s a Hall of Famer, but I think he’s a guy you could at least have a conversation about. Hudson compares well to Buehrle: Hudson had a better won-loss record, a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, and more strikeouts. So why vote for Buehrle but not Hudson? Who knows?

I’m not going to profile the rest of the players in detail, but they include talents like Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, and Carl Crawford, players whose talents shone brightly for a while before fading. Mark Teixeira gets added to the ever-growing list of players with more than 400 home runs who don’t receive even 5% of the vote.

And that sums it up for this year’s BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Come back at the end of 2022 when the 2023 ballot is released.

2022 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Preview

 

Twins closer Joe Nathan is making his first appearance on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.

I’m way behind on my annual baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA ballot preview, but here it is. My prediction is that David Ortiz will be the only player elected to the Hall of Fame this year. Let’s take a look at the first-time candidates on the ballot.

Carl Crawford: He seemed like he might have been on the path to the Hall of Fame around 2010. But that was Crawford’s last great season, at age 28, and he quickly declined. In his prime Crawford was an exciting player, leading the league in triples and stolen bases 4 times each. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he had some nice seasons.

Prince Fielder: Another player who had several excellent seasons, but injuries left him short of the Hall of Fame. Fielder was always fun to watch. Amazingly, he ended up with 319 home runs, the exact same number as his dad, Cecil Fielder. The Fielders are the only father-son duo to both be league leaders in home runs.

Ryan Howard: He sure seemed like a Hall of Famer as the 2011 season was ending. I remember watching the play where Howard tore his Achilles tendon in the NLDS, the injury that ended his dominance as a player. I thought, “Man, why is he dogging it down the line? Oh shit, he’s hurt.” Howard was never the same after that. He still put up some nice career totals of 382 home runs and 1,194 RBI’s, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.

Tim Lincecum: He had some good years, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.

Justin Morneau: As a Twins fan, I always liked Justin Morneau. He was an excellent player, and he was the winner of the 2007 Home Run Derby. No one remembers that because everyone remembers Josh Hamilton’s mesmerizing mammoth blasts. Morneau was also an unlikely batting champion with Colorado in 2014. But that was Morneau’s last season as an everyday player. Injuries took a toll on Morneau, including a concussion that derailed his 2010 season. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but an excellent player nonetheless.

Joe Nathan: Another former Twin, Nathan was lights out as a closer. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but I sure liked having him in the bullpen.

David Ortiz: Also a former Twin. *Sigh*. I don’t want to talk about David Ortiz. I don’t want to talk about how the Twins released him after the 2002 season. I don’t want to talk about how he became a feared cleanup hitter, exactly the kind of player the Twins teams of the 2000’s were lacking. I don’t want to talk about how he helped the Red Sox to 3 World Series championships and hit .455 in those 3 World Series. I don’t want to talk about how David Ortiz became one of the most beloved characters in all of baseball. I don’t want to talk about how David Ortiz will most likely become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don’t want to talk about David Ortiz.

Jonathan Papelbon: Great closer. Probably not a Hall of Famer. I suppose it’s possible Papelbon and Nathan could get more than 5% of the vote and remain on the ballot. But I doubt they will.

Jake Peavy: Not a Hall of Famer, but he was a 2-time ERA leader, which is pretty impressive.

A.J. Pierzynski: Another former Twin. The Twins traded Pierzynski to the Giants, getting Joe Nathan as one of the players in return. Oddly enough for a player who played for 7 teams, it was the only time Pierzynski was traded. I liked Pierzynski when he played for the Twins, and then I hated him because he’s the kind of jerky needler who gets under the skin of the opposition. For a catcher who didn’t become a full-time player until he was 24, Pierzynski put up some good career numbers. He’s 9^th all-time in defensive games at catcher, and he collected 2,043 hits and hit 188 home runs. Not a Hall of Famer, but a guy who made the most of the talent he had.

Alex Rodriguez: It’s kind of ironic that now that Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds will be off the ballot, A-Rod is coming on. Let the steroid controversies continue! Obviously, for sheer talent, Rodriguez should be a Hall of Famer, just like Clemens and Bonds. But his case is complicated. I don’t think A-Rod will be elected this time, but he’ll certainly stay on the ballot.

Jimmy Rollins: I think Rollins should stay on the ballot, and I think he deserves serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. He was an excellent shortstop, putting up 15.9 DWAR and winning 4 Gold Gloves. Rollins was no slouch with the bat either, scoring 1,421 runs, collecting 2,455 hits, 511 doubles, 115 triples, 231 home runs, and 936 RBI’s. Rollins stole 470 bases, at an excellent 81.7% success rate. I think Rollins has a strong case for the Hall of Fame.

Mark Teixeira: Excellent player, but not a Hall of Famer.

Of the first timers on the ballot, I think Ortiz will be elected, or if not, he’ll certainly stay on the ballot for next year. The only other players I think will stay on the ballot are Alex Rodriguez and Jimmy Rollins.

Let’s look at the returning candidates, in order of how they finished on the 2021 ballot.

Curt Schilling: He was only 16 votes short of induction last year, but I don’t think Schilling will gain any support this year. This is his last year on the BBWAA ballot, so he’ll move to the Era Committees.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens: Their cases are exactly the same, and their vote totals have always moved up in tandem. I think they will fall short again, since they need an increase of more than 13%. Their totals will go up, but not enough, so they’ll get kicked into the Era Committees. It’ll be interesting to see how the Committees deal with Bonds and Clemens.

Scott Rolen: He moved above 50% last year, and I think he’ll make another jump ahead this year. I think he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.

Omar Vizquel: He fell slightly in 2021, probably because of domestic abuse allegations. I think his totals will fall again this year.

Billy Wagner: I have zero feelings about Billy Wagner. He’ll probably move up this year since almost everyone has the last couple of years.

Todd Helton: He will probably move above 50% this year, which bodes well for his future chances at induction.

Gary Sheffield: Moved above 40% in 2021, he only has 2 more years on the ballot, so it seems unlikely he’ll get in. But you never know.

Andruw Jones: Moved up to 33.9%, I think he’ll get another nice boost this year.

Jeff Kent: I don’t know why Kent doesn’t get more support. He’ll probably move up, but he only has 2 more years left on the ballot.

Manny Ramirez: Not close enough to make the jump.

Sammy Sosa: His last year on the BBWAA ballot, he’ll get kicked to the Era Committees along with Bonds and Clemens.

Andy Pettitte: So many t’s. Still hanging out in the Dave Concepcion zone.

Mark Buehrle: Got a solid 11% in his first year on the ballot. He’ll need a jump to be a viable candidate, but the lack of good starting pitchers on this ballot could help him if voters take another look at him.

Torii Hunter: Did better than I thought he would, getting 9.5% of the votes on his first ballot. The HOF Ballot Tracker has Torii at just 1.6%, so it will be a struggle for him to get above 5% and stay on the ballot. I think Hunter deserves to stay on the ballot, so I’ll be rooting for him.

Bobby Abreu: I just want him to stay above 5%. The Ballot Tracker has him at 10.9%, which would be a slight increase from 2021.

Tim Hudson: Just barely stayed on the ballot. I’d be fine with Hudson staying on the ballot.

We’ll see what happens tomorrow, but my prediction is we’ll only have one new Hall of Famer elected on this ballot: David Ortiz.

Bernie Taylor, 1941-2021

My Dad's college graduation photo, 1965.

Me and my Dad on top of the Great Wall of China, 2007.

 I haven't written anything for this blog in more than a month, in part because my Dad died on December 11th. I don't write much about my personal life on this blog, so I don't expect that anyone who reads it will have much of a sense of who my Dad was. He was a great guy, always smiling and happy. I miss him. To quote F. Scott Fitzgerald: "I loved my father-always deep in my subconscious I have referred judgements back to him, to what he would have thought or done." 

Below is the obituary I wrote for my Dad, I hope it gives you a little sense of what he was like.

Bernard A. Taylor “Bernie,” age 80, of Minneapolis, passed away suddenly on December 11, 2021. Preceded in death by parents Bernard and Margaret Gould Taylor, brother David Taylor, Kay Paxton (mother of Julie and Bernie Jr.), and granddaughter Marlene Taylor.

Bernie was born in Bemidji and moved to Excelsior with his family when he was 10 years old. When Bernie was 14, his family moved to Minneapolis, and he lived in the city nearly all his life. He graduated from DeLaSalle High School in 1959 and graduated from the College of St. Thomas in 1965 with a degree in Journalism. Bernie worked as an advertising consultant for most of his career with Northrup King, Super Valu, OK Hardware, Jackie Ann Salon, before starting his own firm, Taylor & Pearson. Bernie also worked at Glass Medic, the L.L. Bean store at the Mall of America, and the University of Minnesota, where he was an usher for athletic events for the past 10 years. Bernie’s quick smile and easygoing manner made him many friends wherever he went. Bernie always had a positive outlook on life, and his good mood was infectious.

Bernie had many passions: skiing, golf, books, dogs, the North Shore, photography, and most of all, family and friends. If there was an event involving any member of his extended family, Bernie was there for it. Bernie was a passionate golfer, with two holes-in-one to his credit, and he played his final round on December 1^st of this year. Bernie’s love of golf was shared by his brother Dave, and they played many rounds together over the years. Bernie also played softball past his 60^th birthday, including several seasons playing on the same team with his son Mark. Bernie was rarely without his camera, and his nature photography appeared in the Star Tribune several times, as well as in several calendars and books. Bernie was on the neighborhood committee that helped plan Fuller Park in the mid-1970’s: Bernie lived across the street from the park for many years. Bernie took pride in his remarkable ability to forge connections with animals, and he called himself a “dog whisperer” for his skill in befriending dogs of all kinds.

 Survived by daughter Julie, sons Bernie Jr. (Angela) and Mark (Pondie), Carol Taylor (mother of Mark), nephews Dave (Cathy) and John (Mandy), niece Amy (Kevin), 6 grandchildren: Amber, Michelle, Avada, Grayson, Miles, and Vivien, 1 great-grandson: Maddox, partner Sue Smedberg, and numerous other relatives.