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| My newly-acquired Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter relic card probably just went up in value. (Photo by Mark C. Taylor) |
Yesterday Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, and Todd Helton were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. It wasn’t a shock that Beltre was elected on his first ballot, as he sailed in with 95.1% of the vote. And it wasn’t too surprising that Helton finally made the jump over 75% of the vote, as last year he fell just short of induction with 72.2%, and this year he increased to 79.7%. I think the real surprise was Joe Mauer getting 76.1% and becoming a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Although it wasn’t too much of a surprise now that we have ballot tracking, which showed Mauer well over the 75% threshold.
Honestly, I’m still a bit in shock that Joe Mauer was voted in. It’s partially my Midwestern insecurity at work, but I’m stunned that he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. If you had asked me a year ago, I would have predicted that Mauer would get maybe 25% of the vote. But I’m very excited that he’s in the Hall of Fame. If you want an athlete for your kids to look up to, it’s Joe Mauer.
I predicted that Billy Wagner would be elected too, but he fell 5 votes short. Which means he’ll get in next year for sure. Let’s take a look at the results of the ballot, and what it portends for the players.
Gary Sheffield had a decent gain, but it wasn’t enough, as he ended up at 63.9% of the vote in his final year on the BBWAA ballot. We’ll see how the Era Committee handles him. Sheffield is in the odd category of being punished for presumed steroid use without having failed a drug test. I read ESPN’s article about what the HOF vote shows for these players, and Jesse Rogers said about Sheffield: “Add his 509 home runs and 253 stolen bases to his resume, and Sheffield did it all.” Um, yeah, how about his -27.7 DWAR, Jesse? To be a 5-tool player, you need to be a great fielder too. Sheffield also just doesn’t have a narrative for his career, either. He bounced around and played for so many different teams-I've always said I’m curious as to what team Sheffield would pick for the logo on his cap if he got into the Hall of Fame. If the election of Joe Mauer shows us the power that a great narrative can have, of a really nice guy playing his whole career for his hometown team, Gary Sheffield shows us how not having a narrative might hurt a player’s chances at the Hall of Fame.
Andruw Jones saw just a 3% increase to 61.6%, but with 3 years left on the ballot, he should get in soon, perhaps even in 2025.
Carlos Beltran moved up to 57.1%, which bodes well for him getting in. I think he deserves it; at his peak he was one of the best 5-tool players.
Alex Rodriguez lost 5 votes this year, proving what I said a year ago, that his support is very static and doesn’t show signs of growth or movement. That doesn’t bode well for his chances at election, as he obviously needs a significant gain to start getting traction with the voters.
The same is true for Manny Ramirez, who finished with 32.5% in his 8th year on the ballot. Unless something crazy happens, he’ll be sent to the Era Committee.
Chase Utley had a strong debut, with 28.8%. That doesn’t really mean a lot one way or the other for his eventual induction, but it proves that he’s a serious contender. Utley is one of those guys who doesn’t have huge counting stats, only 1,885 hits, but he had 5 years with 7 or more WAR, so it’s fair to say he had some Hall of Fame-type seasons. Is that enough to get him into the Hall of Fame? Time will tell.
Omar Vizquel dropped again, down to 17.7% in his 7th year on the ballot. The only question is, will he drop off the ballot before he ages off the ballot?
Bobby Abreu dropped slightly, to 14.8%. I’m glad he’s staying on the ballot, but I’m frustrated he hasn’t had bigger gains. Abreu was an interesting player—he had a lot of different skills. With the increased attention being paid to sabermetric stats and OBP, I’m surprised more people aren’t realizing that Abreu could be a Hall of Famer. Part of the problem is probably that Bobby Abreu just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer to most people.
Jimmy Rollins gained slightly, tying Abreu at 14.8%. Again, I’m glad he’s staying on the ballot, but I think Rollins deserves more support.
Andy Pettitte basically holds steady at 13.5% in his 6th year on the ballot.
Mark Buehrle just keeps hanging on at 8.3%. I’d be fine if Buehrle dropped off the ballot, he’s had his chance with the BBWAA voters and his case obviously isn’t resonating. He was an excellent pitcher, but not quite a Hall of Famer.
Francisco Rodriguez dropped in his second year on the ballot, to 7.8%. I think he’ll drop off next year.
Torii Hunter just barely scraped by, getting 7.3% on his 4th year on the ballot. I keep holding my breath for Torii, hoping he’ll make it another year on the ballot. Torii’s always been one of my favorite players, and I think he should be at more like 15-20% of the vote.
David Wright got 6.2% in his ballot debut, so he gets to hang around another year. We’re seeing players with shorter careers either get elected to the Hall of Fame (Joe Mauer) or get significant support on the ballot (Andruw Jones, Chase Utley) and that may bode well for a player like Wright, who had several Hall of Fame-type seasons before spinal stenosis ended his career.
The following players received less than 5% of the vote and will drop off the ballot:
Victor Martinez, Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and James Shields. There are excellent players on this list, guys like Jose Bautista who had a few Hall of Fame-type seasons, and Matt Holliday and Adrian Gonzalez, who put together solid careers. And then there’s Bartolo Colon. I’m really bummed out that Big Sexy didn’t get a chance to survive to another ballot, but the BBWAA ballot is really harsh on pitchers. Oh well, Colon will always be one of baseball’s legendary characters. And I’m really pleased that Brandon Phillips got 1 single vote. It always makes me happy when players I liked who have no chance of getting in at least get 1 vote.
Looking ahead to 2025, the leading new candidates on the ballot will be Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia. See you in late 2024 when the ballot is announced.
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