The 2026 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was recently released, and here’s my assessment of the candidates. It’s one of the weakest groups of first-time candidates in a while, so it should be an interesting election. Let’s take a look at the returning players, in order of their 2025 vote totals.
Carlos Beltran: He was only 19 votes short last year, so he’ll make it into the Hall this year. Beltran was probably a first-ballot guy before the 2017 Astros cheating scandal put a blemish on his resume. I think he should be in, but the Astros scandal really disappointed me. I’m fine that Beltran had to wait a few years.
Andruw Jones: This is Jones’ 9th year on the ballot. Jones got 66.2% of the votes in 2025, and I think he’ll get in this year, especially considering how weak the incoming class is. Jones was an awesome player in his prime, but he suddenly declined after his age 30 season in 2007, and his final season was 2012. Jones is a player that I’ve changed my mind about. When he first debuted on the ballot, I don’t think I would have voted for him, but now I would.
Chase Utley: With 39.8% of the vote in 2025, Utley had a nice increase in his second year on the ballot. I don’t think he’ll get into the Hall of Fame this year, but I predict he’ll get over 50%, making him almost a lock to be elected.
Alex Rodriguez: After the 2025 results were announced in January, I boldly predicted that A-Rod will not be voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA. If A-Rod is going to start seriously picking up votes and make a drive towards election, a year like this one is crucial. If he picks up a huge number of votes during a weak incoming class, that bodes well for him. If his support remains steady without meaningful growth, it means he won’t get in. This is his 5th year on the ballot, so we will be halfway through his BBWAA candidacy. A-Rod was at 37.1% of the vote last year, just short of halfway to 75%.
Manny Ramirez: Manny is in his 10th and final year on the ballot, so he will pick up some votes, but he won’t get in.
Andy Pettitte: He finally had a meaningful gain last year, up to 27.9%. This is his 8th year on the ballot, so he’s running out of time. I predict he’ll see a decent gain this year.
Felix Hernandez: Debuted strongly last year with 20.6%, which was higher than I would have expected. For me, King Felix falls short of the Hall of Fame. Yes, from 2009 to 2015 he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. But, similar to Fernando Valenzuela on the Era Committee ballot, there’s just very little value outside of his peak seasons. Because this year is a weak ballot, Hernandez might pick up a decent number of votes, making him a more serious candidate.
Bobby Abreu: This will be his 7th year on the ballot. Last year he got his highest vote total ever, with 19.5%. Abreu is running out of time to get to 75%, but I hope he’ll get more votes this year. Abreu is one of those players that I like a lot, but it’s hard to imagine him as a Hall of Famer because he just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. He was never a huge star, but he was an excellent player with a great mix of skills. I think he deserves to stay on the ballot, and he’s the kind of player who might be elected by an Era Committee one day.
Jimmy Rollins: This will be his 5th year on the ballot. I think Rollins should be a Hall of Famer. Look at his offensive numbers for a shortstop: the dude could flat-out rake, and he had good power too. Rollins deserves to make a sizable jump in votes this year.
Omar Vizquel: In his 9th year on the ballot. I’ll be glad when we’re done with him.
Dustin Pedroia: Had a nice debut in 2025 with 11.9%, a remarkable total for someone who had such a short career. For me, Pedroia is not a Hall of Famer. He had some great seasons, but his career was simply too short. He only appeared in 1,512 games. I feel like sometimes players like Pedroia drop in their second year on the ballot, so we’ll see what happens.
Mark Buehrle: I’m fine with Buehrle hanging on the ballot, but I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer. Thinking about it more, I’m really puzzled why Buehrle is on his 6th year on the ballot, and Tim Hudson dropped off after only 2 years. Hudson has a better winning percentage, a lower ERA, and more strikeouts.
Francisco Rodriguez: To quote Buddy the elf, “Francisco, that’s fun to say!” That’s all I have to say about Francisco Rodriguez.
David Wright: Returns for a 3rd year on the ballot. It will be interesting to see if his vote totals go up or down. He’s a great example of a short peak player.
Torii Hunter: My man Torii just barely squeaked by last year, with 5.1% of the vote. I think Hunter deserves better, and I’m hopeful he’ll get more attention, since this is such a weak year. I’m not going to argue that he should be in the Hall of Fame, but he’s the kind of player who would typically get between 10-20% of the vote. This is his 6th year on the ballot, so I’m happy he’s made it this long, but I hope he gets further consideration.
Okay, now on to the new candidates. I don’t think anyone in this group is a Hall of Famer. I don’t even think anyone in this group is a lock to get 5% of the vote and stay on the ballot. I think the only possibilities to get 5% of the vote are Cole Hamels, Edwin Encarnacion, and Nick Markakis.
For pitchers, we have Gio Gonzalez, Rick Porcello, and Cole Hamels. Gonzalez and Porcello had some good years. Hamels had some great seasons during his peak, including 2008 when he led the Phillies to the World Championship, and was named MVP of the NLCS and the World Series. I’ll admit, since my favorite baseball player is Steve Carlton, I am partial to tall left-handers who pitched the Phillies to the World Series. For me, Hamels’ career is just too short, falling shy of benchmarks like 200 wins. Hamels ended his career with just 163 wins. We’ll see what writers think of Hamels’ Hall of Fame case.
For batters, we have Ryan Braun, who might have been a serious candidate if it wasn’t for his 2013 suspension for steroid use. I don’t think Braun will get 5% of the vote. There’s Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, and Hunter Pence. All solid players for a while, and Pence in particular was always fun to watch. And Matt Kemp, who was a stud in 2011 and then just fizzled out. Edwin Encarnacion mashed for the Blue Jays during the 2010’s, slugging 424 home runs during his career. There’s a chance Encarnacion could get over 5% of the vote, but there are a lot of guys recently with 400+ home runs who haven’t lasted more than 1 ballot. Nick Markakis was a solid hitter for his whole career, kind of like a Michael Young-type hitter. Good average, lots of doubles, not a huge number of home runs. Markakis was only an All-Star once, in 2018. He ended his career with some solid totals: 1,119 runs scored, 2,388 hits, 514 doubles, 1,046 RBI’s, and a .288 batting average. Solid, but not Hall of Fame.
I predict that the BBWAA will elect Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones.
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