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| Hall of Famer David Ortiz. His shirt is amazing. |
Well, my prediction earlier this week was correct: David Ortiz was the only player elected on the 2022 Hall of Fame BBWAA ballot. Ortiz was named on 77.9% of the ballots, just above the 75% needed for election. Let’s go down the ballot and see how everyone did. Overall, it was not an exciting ballot. In contrast to the past few years, where just about everyone has gained support, some players held steady, and one saw a huge decline.
Barry Bonds: He received 260 votes, up from 248 in 2021, for 66% of the vote. My prediction proved correct, that Bonds and Roger Clemens wouldn’t be able to make the jump in their final year. I’m fascinated to see how the Era Committee will handle Bonds and Clemens. I can see it going either way: contemporaries of Bonds and Clemens might say “They were so amazing, they deserve to be in,” or they might say “They cheated, no way.” As great as Bonds and Clemens were, I’m fine with them being kept out of the Hall of Fame because I think they’re both cheaters.
Roger Clemens: He received 257 votes, up from 247 in 2021, for 65.2% of the vote. See my above comment on Barry Bonds.
Scott Rolen: Had a nice increase this year, moving up from 52.9% in 2021 to 63.2%. I think Rolen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, he’s one of the best 3rd basemen ever, and it seems like the writers are finally starting to understand that. Rolen still has another 5 years left on the BBWAA ballot, so he should make it to 75% without a problem.
Curt Schilling: Saw his support drop from 71.1% last year to 58.6% this year, his final year on the BBWAA ballot. Schilling is a total jerk. After last year’s results, he asked to be removed from the BBWAA ballot, but no one listened to him because he’s a jerk and a whiner. Schilling will now be considered by the Era Committees, which will have their hands full of excellent candidates with glaring problems.
Todd Helton: Moves up to 52% in his 4th year on the ballot, which bodes well for his eventual induction. I don’t have strong feelings about Helton.
Billy Wagner: Moves up to 51%. Wagner only has 3 more years left on the BBWAA ballot, so the clock is ticking. But stranger things have happened, so he could still get in. I don’t have strong feelings about Wagner or his candidacy. Judging closers is a hard thing.
Andruw Jones: Saw another nice increase in his totals, moving up from 33.9% in 2021 to 41.4% this year. Jones has 5 years left on the ballot, so it’s possible that he keeps increasing his totals and gets in. He’s one of the ultimate peak value players-he was fantastic, and then his career just imploded. And now that Tony Oliva was elected, we finally have a post-expansion Hall of Famer with fewer than 2,000 career hits, which may bode well for Jones’ chances. But I don’t know how many BBWAA voters are sitting around saying “Tony Oliva got in? Now I can FINALLY vote for Andruw Jones!” I mean, it’s possible.
Gary Sheffield: He lost 3 votes from last year, but his percentage stayed the same, 40.6%. That doesn’t bode well for his chances, as he only has 2 years left on the BBWAA ballot. Great hitter, but a terrible defender.
Alex Rodriguez: Debuted with 34.3% of the vote, a solid start for his HOF candidacy. However, Bonds and Clemens both debuted with slightly higher percentages (36% and 37%) and never got in. The real question is, will A-Rod gain next year? If you were tired of the controversy over Bonds and Clemens, now you can enjoy the A-Rod show for the next 10 years.
Jeff Kent: Lost 1 vote, but his percentage slightly increased thanks to fewer total ballots. Kent only has 1 year left on the BBWAA ballot, and I don’t think he’s going to make a 40+ percentage point gain. Too bad because I think he’s deserving of a spot in the Hall. One of the best offensive second basemen ever.
Manny Ramirez: Moves up less than 1% point. Manny has 4 more years on the ballot, and I don’t see him getting in.
Omar Vizquel: Dropped like a rock from 49.1% in 2021 to just 23.9% this year. The reason? Assault allegations by Vizquel’s ex-wife that first surfaced around the time of voting in 2020, and now there are new allegations of sexual harassment from a batboy from the Birmingham Barons, the team that Vizquel managed in 2019. I never thought Omar Vizquel would be such a subject of scandal. I’d say his chances of being elected are slim and none. It’s a huge fall for a player who was named on more than 50% of the ballots in 2020. At that time, it seemed like Vizquel had a surprisingly good chance of making the Hall of Fame.
Sammy Sosa: Never made it close to getting into the Hall. Sosa now drops off the BBWAA ballot to be considered by the Era Committee. I doubt he’ll make it in through the Era Committee.
Andy Pettitte: Dropped to 10.7% of the vote. Pettitte was a very good pitcher, but he just wasn’t as dominant as the truly great pitchers of his era. It’s interesting that he lost votes on a ballot with very few viable starting pitcher candidates.
Jimmy Rollins: Debuts with 9.4% of the vote. I’m happy that Rollins will stay on the ballot for next year. I think he should be a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame. He was an excellent hitting shortstop, and a very good fielder as well. The ballot will unclog in 2023, so perhaps Rollins will draw more support.
Bobby Abreu: Lost 1 vote, but he stays on the ballot with 8.6% of the vote. I think Abreu should be a serious candidate, and like Rollins hopefully he’ll draw more support on a less-crowded ballot. More writers should look at Abreu’s interesting career.
Mark Buehrle: In his 2nd year on the ballot, Buehrle drops from 11% to just 5.8%. It was a weak year for starting pitchers on this ballot, so I thought that could give Buehrle a boost, but that didn’t happen. I don’t really think Buehrle’s a Hall of Famer, but he was a good solid pitcher for many years.
Torii Hunter: Also in his 2nd year on the ballot, Hunter dropped from 9.5% to just hanging on at 5.3%. I was happy that Hunter was above 5% last year, but a little surprised that he was close to 10%. But why did his support almost drop in half this year? Are there voters who only vote for some players their first year on the ballot? Perhaps Hunter will get more support with a weak class coming up in 2023. I don’t think Hunter is truly a Hall of Famer, but he was always one of my favorite players, so I hope he stays on the ballot.
Everyone below this point got fewer than 5% of the vote, and will drop off the ballot:
Joe Nathan: A great closer for the Twins, Nathan was one of the best closers in baseball from 2004-2013. His ERA with the Twins was a miniscule 2.16. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS score ranks Nathan as the 8th best relief pitcher of all-time.
Tim Hudson: Was barely above 5% in 2021, his first year on the ballot, and this year he dropped to just 3%. I don’t think Hudson’s a Hall of Famer, but I think he’s a guy you could at least have a conversation about. Hudson compares well to Buehrle: Hudson had a better won-loss record, a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, and more strikeouts. So why vote for Buehrle but not Hudson? Who knows?
I’m not going to profile the rest of the players in detail, but they include talents like Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, and Carl Crawford, players whose talents shone brightly for a while before fading. Mark Teixeira gets added to the ever-growing list of players with more than 400 home runs who don’t receive even 5% of the vote.
And that sums it up for this year’s BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Come back at the end of 2022 when the 2023 ballot is released.
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