First, let’s take a look at the holdovers from last year’s ballot, in order of their vote totals from 2024.
Billy Wagner leads it off, as he almost got in last year, with 73.8% of the vote. He’s a cinch to get in this year, his final year on the BBWAA ballot. Wagner was a great closer who flew under the radar for me during most of his career. With 422 saves, he deserves to get in the Hall of Fame.
Andruw Jones has seen huge increases in his vote totals. Last year he garnered 61.6% of the vote. Jones might not move up enough this year to get in, but he should get closer to induction. I’d like to see Jones in the Hall of Fame—he was a truly fantastic player who unfortunately declined very quickly.
Carlos Beltran was a player I always liked. I think he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and I think the 2017 Astros cheating scandal cost him the chance to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Beltran will get in eventually, either this year or next.
Alex Rodriguez has held steady during his 3 appearances on the BBWAA ballot, and I suspect this year will be the same, with a relatively strong incoming class. I think A-Rod will need a weak incoming ballot for the possibility to gain votes.
Manny Ramirez is holding steady as well. He drops off the ballot next year.
Chase Utley had a solid first year on the ballot, and the BBWAA ballot tracker shows him gaining significant support. Utley was an excellent player who didn’t have a long enough career to hit many of the significant counting stats that most Hall of Famers have. But it may help Utley that players with fewer than 2,000 hits like Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, and Dick Allen have made it into the Hall of Fame in recent years.
Omar Vizquel will continue his slide down the ballot, as off the field issues make him a very problematic candidate.
Bobby Abreu was a great player who brought an interesting mix of skills to the diamond. The BBWAA vote tracker shows him getting an uptick in support. If that holds, Abreu might move from “just hanging on” to “serious candidate.”
Jimmy Rollins was another great Phillies player who deserves more of a look. I’m still hopeful he’ll get a boost of votes some year.
Andy Pettitte has been hanging out in the “Dave Concepcion Zone” (10-20%) for his whole time on the ballot. Pettitte was a very good pitcher who had the good fortune to play for excellent teams, but he just doesn’t feel like a truly elite pitcher to me.
Mark Buehrle is making his 5th appearance on the BBWAA ballot, and it seems unlikely that he will break out and become a serious candidate. Kudos to him for hanging on though, it’s tough to do.
Francisco Rodriguez is on his 3rd ballot, just hoping to stay on. Excellent closer, not an excellent human being.
Torii Hunter just keeps scraping by, making his 5th ballot appearance. But this might finally be the year he drops off, as the ballot tracker has him at just 1.6%, well below the 5% cut off. I’d be sad to see Torii drop off, as I really enjoyed watching him play with the Twins, and he had a really solid career.
David Wright is hoping to stay above 5% in his second year on the ballot.
And now, the newcomers to the 2025 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot:
Ichiro Suzuki is going to make it for sure. The only question is whether or not he will get votes on 100% of the ballots. If anyone can, it’s probably Ichiro, as there’s not much bad you can say about his game. Ichiro had an amazing career, and a tremendous impact on the game of baseball that was felt internationally. He’s an easy, and very deserving, first ballot Hall of Famer.
CC Sabathia will probably make it in as well. 251 wins and 3,093 strikeouts are enough to put him in. A really excellent pitcher, and proof that baseball players come in all shapes and sizes.
The other pitchers who are new to the ballot are Felix Hernandez and Fernando Rodney. I don’t think King Felix will get in the Hall of Fame, but he might get to stick around on the ballot for a few years. There was a time when King Felix was the best pitcher in baseball. Rodney probably won’t stick on the ballot, but he was a tremendously entertaining closer to watch. It was fun watching Rodney when he came to the Twins in 2018, towards the end of his career.
The other batters who are new to the ballot are a talented bunch, as always, but nobody strikes me as especially likely to get enough votes to remain on the ballot. Dustin Pedroia might, but I doubt anyone else will. You could make a terrific line up with these batters on the ballot: Ian Kinsler, Troy Tulowitski, Ben Zobrist, Hanley Ramirez, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, Adam Jones, Brian McCann, Carlos Gonzalez. Looking at these names, I’m struck by how good all of these players were. This is a really strong group of players coming onto the ballot who will probably not get 5% of the vote. They all had great seasons, but just not enough of them to put together a Hall of Fame career. In particular, I always liked watching Curtis Granderson play.
My prediction is that Ichiro, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner will get in, and Andruw Jones will fall just short.
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