2020 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame Results

Larry Walker and Derek Jeter, members of the 2020 Hall of Fame class.

Well, I was right in half of my prediction for the 2020 Baseball Hall of Fame results. Of course, the part I got right was the easy part—everyone knew Derek Jeter was going to sail into the Hall of Fame. (I was wrong about Curt Schilling making the jump this year.) It’s amazing that Jeter was just one ballot away from being the Hall’s second unanimous inductee. I wonder if there will be another unanimous inductee someday. Well, probably when Mike Trout hits the ballot. I also think Ichiro could have a chance at being a unanimous choice. 

Larry Walker made the unlikely 20% jump to induction on his final ballot. On a weak ballot, voters must have taken another look at his stats. Walker is one of the most amazing turnarounds in the history of Hall of Fame voting. In 2017, Walker got just 21.9% of the vote, which means that in the space of only three years, Walker went from not being named on more than 75% of the ballots to being named on 76.6% of the ballots this year. My wife made the point that the Hall of Fame voting is proof that people can actually change their minds. 

If you’re obsessed with the baseball Hall of Fame, one of the best websites out there is Chris Bodig’s Cooperstown Cred. Year-round Bodig writes in-depth articles about the Hall of Fame cases for various players, from slam-dunks like Derek Jeter to super long shots like Dave Stieb. His article on Larry Walker is an excellent deep dive into Walker’s stats. For me, the most shocking thing is Walker’s home/road splits during the time he played for the Rockies. Walker’s slash line on the road was a decent .281/.386/.518. At Coors Field, he turned into a combination of Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth, slashing .383/.463/.713! It feels wrong to punish Walker simply because of how good he was at Coors Field, but it’s bizarre what an extreme home/road split he has. 

As I’ve written before, I just don’t have strong feelings about Larry Walker. I’m happy for him that he got in, he has 72.7 WAR, and JAWS ranks him as the 10^th best right fielder ever, so good for him. He just never became one of my favorite players. 

Of the returning candidates on the ballot, every single player increased their percentage of the vote this year, which leads me to the obvious conclusion that voters took this opportunity to examine their statistics even more. I wonder if that’s ever happened before in Hall of Fame voting, that every returning player increased their percentage of the vote? 

Curt Schilling made an almost 10% jump, up to 70% of the vote, which means he’ll likely get in next year. I’m no fan of Schilling as a person, but as a player he deserves to be in. 

There were 397 ballots this year, down from 425 in 2019. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens actually got fewer votes than they did in 2019, but their percentages increased slightly. On a weak ballot, they gained less than 2%, so that might not bode well for their possible induction by the BBWAA. They have two years left on the ballot, and they need a 15% boost. It could still happen, but this year’s results make it seem less likely. I’m super curious as to what an Era Committee would do with Bonds and Clemens. Would former players vote them in, or keep them out? I still think that part of the Hall of Fame’s reason for changing the time players spend on the ballot from 15 years to 10 was an attempt to get the debate about steroid guys like Bonds and Clemens over with faster. The change from 15 years to 10 has worked out well, as it’s just forced the sportswriters to not dither around so much. 

Omar Vizquel moved up almost 10%, from 42.8% to 52.6%, so that bodes well for his future chances. Vizquel is only on his 3^rd ballot, so he has plenty of time to get to 75% of the vote. I’m not going to passionately argue for Vizquel as a Hall of Famer, but I’m fine with him getting into the Hall. He was obviously a very poor hitter, but getting close to 3,000 hits helps him, despite all the outs he made along the way. Vizquel isn’t as good as the elite shortstops in the Hall, but he stuck around forever. Vizquel will be getting in because he got close to 3,000 hits, played the most games at shortstop of anyone, and won 11 Gold Gloves. He’s 9^th all-time in defensive WAR, with 29.5. (Exactly 10 points behind Mark Belanger, the ultimate good-field, no-hit shortstop.) 

Scott Rolen broke out on this ballot, getting 35.3% of the vote, which takes him out of the no man’s land zone and into the “serious candidate” zone. Rolen more than doubled his percentage from 2019, and another weak ballot year in 2021 could help him. I think Rolen should be a Hall of Famer. He has 70.2 WAR, and JAWS ranks him as the 10^th best third baseman ever. Third base has been a weird position for the Hall of Fame. Ron Santo, who should have been a slam-dunk HOFer, didn’t get in during his lifetime, while George Kell, who is way below the standards, got voted in by the Veteran’s Committee in 1983. Kell was a 10-time All-Star who won a batting title, and finished with a .306 career batting average, so I guess that outweighed his total lack of power: just 79 career home runs. If Rolen gets elected, maybe the Era Committees will start paying attention to my two favorite third basemen who have been overlooked by the Hall: Graig Nettles and Buddy Bell. 

Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield also broke out, as they both finished above 30% of the vote for the first time. I don’t have strong feelings about either player. I’m conflicted on how the Hall of Fame should treat closers. Before they were in the Hall, I thought Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage should be in the Hall. Then after they got in, I thought, “Meh, those are kind of weak choices.” The role of a closer keeps changing, so it’s hard to evaluate and compare them. With Sheffield getting above 30%, maybe we’ll be confronted with the burning question: which team would be represented on his Hall of Fame plaque?? How could he possibly choose? Fun fact about Gary Sheffield: he finished his career with 80.8 offensive WAR, and -27.7 defensive WAR. Yikes!

Todd Helton went up to 29.2% of the vote, so be prepared for more debates about the Coors Field effect. 

In his 7^th year on the ballot, Jeff Kent finally made it over 25% of the vote for the first time. I’ve always been surprised at how little support Kent has received for the Hall of Fame. Chris Bodig does an excellent deep dive on Kent’s career, and comes up with some of the reasons why Kent’s candidacy has never caught on. Maybe Kent can hope for a Larry Walker-like surge in his last three years on the ballot. In JAWS, Kent is ranked 20^th among second basemen, which is below the HOF standard, but he’s still ahead of several HOFers, like Billy Herman, Bobby Doerr, Nellie Fox, and Tony Lazzeri. The standard for second basemen is also a little high because there are four second basemen who have over 100 WAR: Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, and Joe Morgan. 

Andruw Jones had been barely hanging on the ballot, but this year he moved up to 19.4% of the vote. That gives him some security of staying on the ballot. I don’t think Jones should be a Hall of Famer, but I don’t have any problem with him remaining on the ballot and letting writers discuss his candidacy more. If you like your HOFers to have peak value, Jones certainly had that. It’ll be interesting to see if Jones has a similar vote gain in 2021. 

Even Sammy Sosa increased his percentage this year, moving up to 13.9%, putting him firmly in Dave Concepcion territory. 

Bobby Abreu was the only first-time candidate who will remain on the ballot for 2021, and he just barely made it, getting 5.5% of the vote. I think Abreu deserves to be considered as a serious candidate. As I wrote in my ballot preview, Abreu was an unusual player who combined a lot of different skills. Abreu doesn’t have one stat that really screams Hall of Famer. As Chris Bodig wrote in his piece on Abreu, it’s hard to make an elevator pitch for Abreu. 

In a way, Bobby Abreu shouldn’t make the Hall of Fame. It would ruin his reputation as an under the radar guy if he made the Hall of Fame. He should just be this low-key guy that only serious baseball fans know about. There won’t be any biopics of Bobby Abreu, his legend will spread by word of mouth, and through obscure blog posts. One day, years from now, you’ll go to the Hall of Fame and ask about Bobby Abreu, and they’ll point you over to an old man who’ll say, “Bobby Abreu? No one’s asked about him in 30 years!” And then he’ll spin you a tale of Bobby Abreu’s amazing career, and how he played in more than 150 games for 13 seasons in a row. 

Paul Konerko got just 2.5% of the vote, so he will drop off the ballot. Konerko always seemed like a nice guy, even when he was pulverizing my Minnesota Twins. I guess I can’t prove to you that Paul Konerko is a nice guy, but I’ve never heard any stories about him being a jerk, so I assume he’s a decent fellow. I’m not going to say that Paul Konerko should be a Hall of Famer, but he seems like someone who should have stayed on the ballot. He played his entire career for one team, except for 81 games at the start of his career. (There’s definitely a Hall of Fame bonus for being strongly identified with one team.) Konerko helped the White Sox win the World Series in 2005, he was never connected to PEDs, and he seemed to be a nice guy, so I would imagine that sportswriters liked him. When you look at those peripheral things, in addition to his 439 home runs and his 1,412 RBIs, I’m surprised he dropped off the ballot. He seems like a guy who would hang out in the Dave Concepcion zone, getting 10-20% of the vote every year. I thought Konerko really boosted his Hall of Fame chances after his strong seasons in his mid-30’s from 2010-2012, but I guess I was wrong. 

In addition to Konerko, three other players with more than 400 home runs also dropped off the ballot: Jason Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, and Adam Dunn. I’m not that surprised these three players didn’t get 5% of the vote. 

One of my favorite players, Raul Ibanez, received just one vote for the Hall of Fame. However, he did receive just enough votes to become a member of the Turtle Club. Despite not getting 400 plate appearances in a season until his age 30 season in 2002, Ibanez still met all four official Mark Taylor criteria for having a “nice career,” which I define for a position player as achieving one or more of the following: 1,000 runs, 2,000 hits, 200 home runs, and 1,000 RBI’s. Fun fact: Raul Ibanez was never traded. He changed franchises seven times in his career without being traded. I wonder if that’s a record. 

This concludes my recap of the 2020 BBWAA ballot results. Looking ahead, the 2021 ballot is another pretty weak one, so we’ll see if some of these players continue to gain and get closer to eventual election.

Modern Baseball Era 2020 Hall of Fame Results

MLB Player's Union head Marvin Miller and Tony Curtis. Oops, that's actually Joe Torre. Sometime in the 1970's.

My favorite baseball card of Ted Simmons, his 1977 Topps card.

Yesterday the Modern Baseball Era Committee voted, and last night the results were announced. The Baseball Hall of Fame has gained two members: union executive Marvin Miller, and catcher Ted Simmons. I’m very excited about Miller and Simmons getting into the Hall of Fame. Miller should have been a no-brainer, and I would blame owner resentment for why his election took so long. Every professional baseball player owes Marvin Miller a lot. Miller started the MLB Players’ Union and pushed for collective bargaining and free agency. 

In my very long article from November, I examined all the players on the ballot, and presented a deep dive into Thurman Munson’s statistics. I wrote less about Ted Simmons, but he has long been one of my favorite players, and I think his election to the Hall of Fame was overdue. Simmons debuted on a stacked Hall of Fame ballot in 1994, and he only received 3.7% of the vote in his only appearance on the BBWAA ballot. Simmons fell just one vote short the last time this committee met two years ago, and his election proves that sometimes the writers simply get it wrong. No, Simmons wasn’t Johnny Bench. But no one has matched Johnny Bench’s accomplishments as a catcher. 

Simmons was a great hitter during his years with the St. Louis Cardinals, 1968-1980, putting up an OPS+ of 127, and a slash line of .298/.366/.459. Simmons became an everyday player in 1971, and from 1971-1980 he caught an average of 135 games a year. Simmons’ career in St. Louis came to an end when Whitey Herzog took over as manager and general manager in 1980. Herzog loved the catcher he had managed in Kansas City, the bespectacled Darrell Porter, and Herzog just didn’t like Ted Simmons. After signing Porter as a free agent after the 1980 season, Herzog wanted to move Simmons to first base, and then move Keith Hernandez to left field. Obviously, Herzog didn’t understand that he had maybe the best-fielding first baseman of all-time on his team. (In a terrible move in June of 1983, the Cardinals traded Hernandez to the Mets for Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey.) Simmons asked to be traded, and so the Cardinals sent Simmons, Rollie Fingers, (who was only a Cardinal for four days) and Pete Vuckovich to the Brewers for David Green, Dave LaPoint, Sixto Lezcano, and Lary Sorensen. The Cardinals had traded two future Hall of Famers, and the 1981 and 1982 AL Cy Young Award winners. Oops. But Lezcano was one of the players the Cardinals sent to the Padres for Ozzie Smith, so it all worked out. The Cardinals and the Brewers ended up facing off in the 1982 World Series. The Cardinals triumphed in 7 games. Fingers was injured and didn’t pitch in the postseason. Simmons slugged two home runs for the Brewers. Darrell Porter was the World Series MVP. 

In addition to being a great catcher, Ted Simmons also seems like a very cool guy. For a baseball player, Simmons was a bit of an iconoclast. Nicknamed “Simba” because his long hair resembled a lion’s mane, Simmons was a vocal opponent of Richard Nixon’s administration. Simmons might have become baseball’s first free agent, as he started to play the 1972 season without signing his contract. Simmons eventually signed his contract during the season, thus making the point moot. Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally did the same thing in 1975, pitching for the entire season without contracts, and an arbitrator ruled that they were free agents, thus ending baseball’s reserve clause. Simmons was a collector of antiques and a trustee of the St. Louis Art Museum. In an article from Sports Illustrated from 1978, Simmons is quoted as “authoritatively discussing the evolution of the fireplace in American households.” The whole article is worth reading, as it gives you a glimpse of a very intelligent man. 

As a young man, Simmons had sleepy eyes and long, dark hair, so I think the obvious choice to play him in a 1970’s made-for-TV movie would have been Tony Danza. Okay, so Simmons isn’t Italian, but it would have worked. “The Ted Simmons Story: From Simba to Museum Trustee,” airing next week on NBC. 

Simmons was named on 13 of the 16 ballots, and Miller was named on 12 of 16. Dwight Evans did well in his first appearance on a Committee ballot, getting 8 votes. Dave Parker got 7 votes, and Steve Garvey and Lou Whitaker each got 6 votes. Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Thurman Munson, and Dale Murphy each got 3 or fewer votes. It’s interesting to me that Tommy John didn’t get more support, especially since he was the only pitcher on the ballot. I still think John has a strong case for the Hall of Fame, but maybe his stock is going down as less emphasis gets placed on pitcher wins. Evans has a strong case to make, and hopefully he’ll be included on future Committee ballots. Ditto for Lou Whitaker. Evans and Whitaker were players who flew under the radar more than Parker and Garvey. I think Dave Parker and Steve Garvey have weaker cases than Evans and Whitaker, but if Parker and Garvey were elected, I would understand why—they both have the “Fame” part covered for sure. The Modern Baseball Committee will vote again in 2022, for the class of 2023, so I’m sure I’ll be writing about many of these players again.

2020 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

"Now batting, number 2, the shortstop, Derek Jeter." (Said in the oldest, plummiest WASP accent this side of George Plimpton.)

The underrated Bobby Abreu.

Raul Ibanez: Just turtle-y enough for the Turtle Club.

Yesterday the 2020 Hall of Fame ballot was announced. The biggest name appearing on the ballot for the first time is Derek Jeter. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say I think there’s a strong possibility that Derek Jeter could get elected. (That’s a joke.) Obviously, Jeter will sail into the Hall. The only question to ponder is what will his percentage be? I’m going to predict that Jeter will get 95% of the vote. I think it’s unlikely that he’d be a unanimous choice, but then I was surprised last year when Mariano Rivera was named on all the ballots, becoming the very first unanimous Hall of Famer. 

Let’s look at the returning candidates, before taking a look at some of those players on the ballot for the first time.

Curt Schilling: Last year, Schilling reached a high of being named on 60.9% of the ballots. And that was with a very stacked ballot. I’m going to predict that this year Schilling will make the jump and be elected. As a player, Schilling absolutely deserves to be in. As a person, meh, not so much.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens: I’m going to discuss Bonds and Clemens together, since their arguments are essentially the same. If you want Bonds and Clemens in, your argument is simply that they were among the greatest players ever, and since they never failed a steroid test, well, we just don’t know if they were juicing or not. (Or you don’t care if they were juicing or not.) There is a valid argument there, as no one can argue that Bonds and Clemens weren’t two of the best players ever. The question is: how much of that greatness was aided by chemicals? 

Bonds and Clemens’ vote totals have moved together in lockstep fashion, making it clear that if you support one, you support the other. This is their 8^th year on the ballot, and it will be fascinating to see what happens. I’m not going to offer a prediction, since I have no idea. They were both at 59% last year, and they need to make a substantial jump, to say, 67%, to be in a position to one day get elected by the writers. 

What people have overlooked about Bonds and Clemens’ rising vote totals is the number of voters they’re actually gaining. Clemens gained 11 votes in 2019, and Bonds gained 13 votes. If they keep growing by those numbers, they’re not going to make it, assuming the number of BBWAA voters holds steady at around 420-430. 

Larry Walker is in his last year on the ballot. He made a huge leap forward in 2019, gaining 20% of the vote to end up at 54.6%. He’ll need another 20% jump to gain entry in 2020. It’s possible, as this year’s ballot is weaker than last year, and nearly every player gains votes in their last year on the ballot. (Except for Jack Morris, who then had to wait for the Veterans’ Committee to elect him.) 

Omar Vizquel had a nice showing last year, his second on the ballot, at 42.8%, and I predict he’ll move closer to 50% this year, making it likely we’ll see him in the Hall in a few years.

Manny Ramirez will continue to tread water in the Dave Parker/Dale Murphy territory of 20-30%. 

Jeff Kent is in the same category as Ramirez, holding steadily above 5% to remain on the ballot, but not making meaningful progress towards 75%. Kent is an excellent candidate, and it’s interesting that he hasn’t gained more support. 

I don’t have strong feelings about Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner, Todd Helton, and Gary Sheffield. They all deserve to stay on the ballot as we continue to scrutinize their careers. Maybe one of them will break through and have a significant gain. 

Andy Pettitte, Sammy Sosa, and Andruw Jones will all be hoping to stay above 5% and remain on the ballot. Will Jeter’s appearance lead to more people voting for Pettitte? Possibly, and the fact that there are no strong first-year pitchers on this ballot could lead to an uptick for Pettitte. 

New candidates for 2020:

Okay, so there’s that Jeter guy, who I think will do okay. Besides Jeter, who else debuts this year? The strongest candidates are Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, and I’d say Paul Konerko, even though WAR doesn’t agree with me. 

Bobby Abreu: He’s a fascinating candidate for the Hall of Fame. Abreu has a more compelling case for the Hall than you probably remember. Abreu finished his career with 60 WAR, and JAWS ranks him as the 20^th best right fielder. That’s below the Hall of Fame standard for right fielders, but that’s also skewed a little bit by how great the top three right fielders were: Babe Ruth, with 162.1 WAR, Hank Aaron, at 143, and Stan Musial at 128.2. Nobody is going to match up to those guys. Abreu’s JAWS score of 50.8 puts him just below Dave Winfield and Ichiro Suzuki, but it also puts Abreu above Hall of Famers Vladimir Guerrero, Enos Slaughter, and Sam Rice, among others. 

Abreu was good at a lot of things: he hit for power, he scored lots of runs, he had a lot of RBIs, he walked a lot, he was a great base stealer. But there isn’t one stat that jumps out and screams, “Hall of Famer.” Abreu is one of just six players with more than 250 home runs and more than 400 stolen bases. The others? Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, and Joe Morgan. That’s a very impressive group to be a part of. I hope that Abreu does well enough on the ballot to show that he’s a serious candidate.

Jason Giambi: Giambi had an excellent career, leading the league in OBP three times, and winning the AL MVP in 2000. Unfortunately, he also took steroids. Giambi might get more than 5% of the vote, but seeing how other steroid users, and suspected steroid users, have fared on the ballot, Giambi probably won’t emerge as a serious Hall of Fame candidate. Man, Giambi just hung around forever as a pinch-hitter. Those last five years of his career didn’t really add much value, but they did allow Giambi to surpass 2,000 hits. 

Paul Konerko: On paper, Konerko looks like a possible Hall of Famer. He finished his career with 2,340 hits, 439 home runs, and 1,412 RBIs. But WAR tells us that he simply wasn’t an elite player, finishing with 27.7 WAR, putting Konerko right around players like Garry Templeton, Roy Smalley, Hal McRae, Terry Steinbach, Clete Boyer, and Lloyd Moseby. 

WAR is curious. How is it possible that Paul Konerko was as valuable as Lloyd Moseby? Paul Konerko hit 270 more home runs than Lloyd Moseby. He crushes Moseby in the slash line stats: .279/.354/.486 to .257/.332/.414. Huh.

Konerko will always strike fear in my heart because I was almost hit by a home run he hit at the Metrodome. My Dad and I were sitting out in the left field bleachers. I didn’t have a glove with me, and I could tell the ball was coming right towards me. I got out of the way. The ball clanked off of the seat I had been sitting in, and bounced several rows away. I didn’t even get the ball. I don’t know the exit velocity of that home run, but I can tell you, it was hit hard, and I did not want it to hit me in the chest. 

Konerko is probably too similar to a lot of other first basemen, both in and out of the Hall of Fame, to be a strong candidate. It’ll be interesting to see how he does on the ballot. I think he deserves to get 5% of the vote, but he might fall short of that. 

Cliff Lee: He had a nice career, but due to injuries, he was done at age 35. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he had some good runs in the postseason: 7-3 with a 2.52 ERA. 

There are some other notable names on the ballot, like Brian Roberts, who looked for a while like he might be the new doubles leader. (Not really, since the leader is Tris Speaker, with 792.) Still, Roberts had three seasons of 50 or more doubles. There’s Alfonso Soriano, who smacked 412 home runs. (I saw Soriano’s last major league game at Target Field on July 5, 2014.) There’s Adam Dunn, who crushed 462 home runs and saw his career fade out in a burst of Chris Davis-like futility, as he hit .159 in 2011. I was always secretly hoping that Dunn would play a couple more years and break the all-time strikeout record. Dunn was only 218 strikeouts shy of Reggie Jackson’s record, so he really only had to play one more year. There’s Raul Ibanez, who had a solid career, despite not becoming an everyday player until he was 30. Although he’s not a Hall of Famer, Raul Ibanez was just turtle-y enough for the Turtle Club. 

To sum up, my bold prediction is that Derek Jeter and Curt Schilling will be voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2020.