Today's Game Era Committee Hall of Fame Ballot

Harold Baines, trying to look cool while wearing one of the worst uniforms ever.

Joe Carter, celebrating the biggest home run of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1993.

Lee Smith, throwing some heat for the Cardinals.

On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame released the ballot for the Today’s Game Era Committee. A replacement for the Veteran’s Committee, the new committees break up the game into different eras. “Today’s Game Era” looks at players who made their most significant contributions from 1988 to the present. There are 10 people on this year’s ballot—one executive, three managers, and six players. It’s a pretty weak ballot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if no one is elected.

Let’s take a look at the non-players first:

George Steinbrenner: Oh, you mean the guy who made illegal campaign contributions to Richard Nixon’s re-election campaign in 1972 and was convicted of obstruction of justice? Oh, the guy who was banned from day to day management of the team he owned in 1990—a result of his decision to hire a gambler to try to find some dirt on Dave Winfield? Steinbrenner was a first-class jerk in my book, and I don’t think he belongs in the Hall of Fame. 

Davey Johnson: An excellent second baseman in his day, Johnson actually has a higher OPS+ than Joe Carter: 110 to 105. Johnson also has one of the most unlikely 40 home run seasons ever. In 1973 he slammed 43 homers for the Braves; his highest total in any other season was 18. Johnson was part of a trio of Braves who hit 40 home runs that year, joining him were Hank Aaron and Darrell Evans. However, Johnson is on the ballot for his skill as a manager. Johnson led the 1986 Mets to a World Series win—the only time any of his teams ever made it to the Fall Classic. Johnson won 1,372 games, good for 31^st all-time. He lost only 1,071, giving him a .562 winning percentage. That winning percentage might be Johnson’s ticket to the Hall, as it’s higher than HOF managers Tommy Lasorda, Dick Williams, Miller Huggins, Wilbert Robinson, and Whitey Herzog, to name some other managers whose win totals are close to Johnson’s. 

Charlie Manuel: I’m surprised he made it on the ballot. With exactly 1,000 wins, he would have the least wins of any manager in the Hall of Fame. There’s simply no reason to pick Manuel, let alone to pick him over Johnson and Lou Piniella, unless the Committee has a real soft spot for the 2008 Phillies.

Lou Piniella: After a long playing career, which included winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 1969, Piniella managed the New York Yankees twice under George Steinbrenner, and then had better luck with the Cincinnati Reds, leading them to a sweep in the 1990 World Series. While that was Piniella’s lone managerial appearance in the World Series, he racked up 1,835 victories, 16^th on the all-time list. Piniella’s winning percentage of .517 is significantly lower than Johnson’s, but I think Piniella’s win total will be enough to get him in the Hall of Fame. 

Okay, now on to the players:

Harold Baines: One of my favorite players when I was growing up, Baines finished his career with some excellent counting stats:  2,866 hits, 384 home runs, and 1,628 RBI. Baines is 34^th on the all-time RBI list, and the only players above him who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are linked to PEDs—Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa—or aren’t eligible yet—Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, and Miguel Cabrera. That’s not going to be enough to get Baines into the Hall of Fame, but it shows what a prolific hitter he was, piling up more RBIs than HOFers like Mike Schmidt, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, and Willie Stargell. I bet most baseball fans would be stumped on that piece of trivia. 

One of the factors against Baines is that he spent so much of his career as a designated hitter. After the 1986 season, he never played more than 25 games in the field in a season. Baines is one of those players who had a really great career, but he just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. He also didn’t have much of a peak as a player—there was never a time when he was one of the very best players in the game. Baines lasted five years on the writers’ ballot, but the highest total he received was 6.1%, just barely over the 5% required to stay on the ballot. 

Players like Baines just haven’t been elected to the Hall of Fame lately. The last outfielder or first baseman elected to the Hall of Fame with fewer than 400 home runs was Tim Raines in 2017, who was elected for his ability to get on base and steal bases. Before that you have to go back to 2009, when Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice were elected. Obviously, Henderson had a lot more to offer than just power, as he was probably the best leadoff hitter ever, as well as the all-time stolen base leader. Jim Rice is a good comparison to the kind of player Baines was, as Rice finished his career with 2,452 hits and 382 home runs, well short of any of the “magic numbers” that usually ensure election. However, unlike Baines, Rice’s career was full of black ink, as he led the league in home runs three times, RBIs twice, slugging percentage twice, and total bases four times. Even with all of these offensive credentials, it took Rice the full 15 years to be elected, and sabermetrically inclined people have decried his election. I don’t know if we’ll ever see another outfielder or first baseman elected who has fewer than 400 home runs or 3,000 hits. 

Albert Belle: He was a very good hitter, but an absolute jerk as a human being. He was an excellent hitter at his peak, but his career was too short to pile up enough counting stats. He’s not a Hall of Famer.

Joe Carter: One of the most prolific RBI men of all time, ending up with 1,445 for his career, Carter famously hit a World Series-winning home run for the Blue Jays in 1993. Carter knocked in more than 100 RBIs in 10 seasons—at the time he retired after the 1998 season, only eight players had done that, and they were all Hall of Famers. As mentioned in my comments about Harold Baines, there’s just no way that Carter will get elected, as he’s an outfielder with fewer than 400 home runs and 3,000 hits. Carter hit 396 home runs, and even with another four home runs, he’d still fall short of being a Hall of Famer. Carter’s entire case is based around home runs and RBIs, and sabermetrics significantly weaken Carter’s case. He was a good player, but not a Hall of Famer. Random fact: Carter was a 30-30 guy in 1987, which I totally forgot about. 

Will Clark: Like Carter and Baines, Clark was a very good hitter, but he’s not a Hall of Famer. Clark is just too short on the counting stats. The Hall of Fame isn’t looking for first basemen who gathered 2,176 hits, 284 home runs, and 1,205 RBIs. Clark was an excellent hitter throughout his career—he even hit .319 in 2000, his last year in the majors. 

Orel Hershiser: Like Will Clark, Hershiser probably projected to be a Hall of Famer after his dominant first few seasons. However, injuries took their toll in the early 1990’s, and even though Hershiser was able to bounce back and have some excellent seasons with the Cleveland Indians, he ended his career with 204 wins, a pretty low total for a prospective Hall of Famer. For me, Hershiser was an excellent pitcher, but he falls short of being a Hall of Famer. That being said, his 1988 season was pretty darn amazing.

Lee Smith: For many years, Smith held the all-time saves record, finishing his career with 478. Only Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have surpassed that total. Hoffman is now in the Hall, and Rivera will undoubtedly be a first-ballot choice. Does that mean Smith should get in too? It’s difficult to say how the Hall of Fame should judge closers, since so few of them have been elected, and because the job keeps changing from decade to decade. 

In one way, Smith has the strongest argument of any of the players on the ballot to be elected to the Hall, since he spent 15 years on the writers’ ballot and had significant support. Smith wasn’t just barely hanging on, his support ranged from a high of 50.6% on the 2012 ballot to a low of 29.9% on the 2014 ballot. Side note: it’s really odd that his support dropped so much in just two years. Every player that has received 50% of the votes required for election has eventually gotten in, with the exception of Gil Hodges. Smith is making his first appearance on an “era committee” ballot, so it will be interesting to see how he fares.