Thoughts on the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Hall of Famers Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera.

2019 Hall of Famer Roy Halladay.

Last week the results of the BBWAA vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame were announced. Four new Hall of Famers were chosen: Mariano Rivera, who became the first player to ever be named on 100% of the ballots, Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, and the late Roy Halladay. These four players will join Lee Smith and Harold Baines, who were elected by the Today’s Game Era Committee in December. 

First, some thoughts on the election of Smith and Baines. In my post in November when the ballot was announced, I wrote that it was quite possible no one from that ballot would be elected. I also wrote that while I really like Harold Baines, I didn’t expect him to be elected. Well, I was wrong. The Committee threw everyone for a loop by choosing Baines, and the sabermetrics folks have had a field day complaining about Baines’ election, and how it lowers the bar for future candidates. I was pretty shocked that Baines got in, since he received very little support from the writers when he was on the ballot.  

Baines’ election doesn’t concern me that much as far as setting a bar for the future, since there are so few players that are truly comparable to Baines. Are Al Oliver, Dave Parker, and Vada Pinson suddenly going to get in because Baines did? That seems unlikely to me.

I wasn’t too shocked about Lee Smith’s election, but it did surprise me that he was a unanimous selection of the Committee. I think Smith was obviously one of the most dominant closers of his era, and if you’re going to put Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter in the Hall, you should put Smith in there too.  

Rivera’s selection being unanimous was somewhat surprising to me. Obviously, he’s a first ballot Hall of Famer and the greatest closer ever, but it’s hard to get 425 people to agree on anything. The reason for my surprise at Rivera’s unanimous selection is because he’s a specialist, and it wouldn’t surprise me if somewhere among those 425 BBWAA voters there was one guy who was like, “I’ve never voted for a relief pitcher, and I never will. I didn’t vote for Hoyt Wilhelm, or those guys with the weird mustaches, or Lee Smith, and I ain’t gonna vote for Mariano.” From everything I’ve read about Rivera off the field, it sounds like he’s a pretty remarkable person, so he’s certainly a good choice for the first unanimous selection. 

As expected, Edgar Martinez got a 15% bump and gained election in his 10^th and final year on the ballot. As I’ve written before, I just don’t feel very strongly about Edgar Martinez one way or the other. Martinez’s election highlights some of the ridiculous absurdities of Hall of Fame voting. In his first year on the ballot, Martinez got 36.2% of the vote, not even halfway to the 75% needed for election. In 2014, his fifth year on the ballot, Martinez’s support bottomed out at 25.2%. Amazingly, he gained 60% more votes in five years! But what about Edgar Martinez’s stats changed between 2014 and 2019? Nothing! He still had 309 home runs, 1,261 RBIs, a lifetime batting average of .312, and an OBP of .418. So why wasn’t he a Hall of Famer five years ago? Why do people’s minds suddenly change the closer someone gets to 75%? There’s probably at least one BBWAA member who voted for Martinez this year who had never voted for him in the previous nine years. What on earth was their rationale for changing their minds now? “Well, it looks like he’s gonna get in, so I guess I should vote for him so I can say I voted for him.” Despite how cranky I sound, I’m actually an advocate for slow thinking, and I think it’s important for people to be able to change their minds and re-examine new evidence. But it’s just sort of absurd for me to think that just five years ago 75% of the voting BBWAA members DIDN’T think Edgar Martinez was a Hall of Famer, and now 85% of them think he IS a Hall of Famer. 

Roy Halladay received the exact same numbers of votes as Martinez, earning election in his first appearance on the ballot. Sadly, Halladay died in November of 2017 when he crashed his personal aircraft. Halladay was a great pitcher, and he’s an interesting example of peak performance as opposed to steady compiling. Halladay won 203 games, which is 58^th most of the 80 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. As pitcher wins become a less important statistic, it will be interesting to see if a starter with fewer than 200 wins is ever elected. 

Mike Mussina just got in with 76.7% of the vote. I think Mussina was clearly deserving of the Hall of Fame, and I’m very glad he finally got in. Mussina’s winning percentage is the same as Jim Palmer’s. Mussina didn’t have some of the impressive accolades that Palmer did—Palmer was a 3-time Cy Young Award winner and was an 8-time 20-game winner. Mussina never won a Cy Young award and didn’t win 20 games in a season until 2008, his final season. Also, Mussina never had a best-selling underwear poster, which probably cost him several votes. Palmer also benefited from playing during the 1970’s, an era when offenses were not as potent as they were in the 1990’s and 2000’s. Palmer also benefited greatly from having Mark Belanger at shortstop and Brooks Robinson at third base for many years, as they were probably the best fielding shortstop/third base duo ever. 

 

Curt Schilling jumped to 60.9%, and with three years left on the ballot, he’ll most likely make it in, despite being a total jerk. 

And speaking of total jerks, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds inched forward ever so slightly. Clemens is at 59.5% and Bonds is at 59.1%. Clemens got 11 more votes than last year, moving up to 253, and Bonds added 13, moving up to 251. However, if the number of voting BBWAA members holds steady around 420-430, with only three more years on the ballot, they’ll need to add more than a dozen votes a year to get elected. That being said, if they keep inching forward the next two years, they could be within distance of getting a big enough bump in the last year on the ballot to put them over the top. 

Larry Walker had a huge vote jump, gaining 20% to end up at 54.6%. He’ll need another 20% gain next year, his last on the ballot, to gain election. As I wrote last year, Larry Walker is the Canadian Edgar Martinez for me. Can we just agree to ignore any stats that anyone puts up in Colorado? In the 26 seasons that the Colorado Rockies have been in existence, Rockies players have won 11 batting titles. That’s 42%. And it includes players like Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau. I’m a Twins fan, and I like Cuddy and Morneau, but they are very fluky batting title winners. 

Okay, moving on. Omar Vizquel got a nice 5% bump to get to 42.8% in his second year on the ballot. That bodes well for his future chances, especially since he gained on a very stacked ballot. 

Fred McGriff got a significant bump in his final year on the ballot, as he was named on 39.8% of the ballots. I’ve always really liked McGriff and I was surprised he never received more support, since he was a slugger who presumably stayed clean of steroids. I do think that bouncing around from team to team probably hurt McGriff’s case. Quick, close your eyes. Picture Fred McGriff. Which team is he playing for? The Blue Jays? The Braves? The Devil Rays? The Cubs? McGriff was great for all those teams, but he didn’t play for any one of them long enough to be strongly identified with that team. There’s definitely a Hall of Fame bonus for playing your whole career for one team, or for playing for one team long enough that you become identified very closely with that team. 

Nothing too exciting happened down ballot. Two first-year candidates get to come back again next year, as Todd Helton and Andy Pettitte both received more than 5% of the vote. Helton was an excellent player, but as I noted above, I’m skeptical of anyone who played their entire career in Colorado. The most remarkable fact about Pettitte to me is that he started 521 games and only threw 4 shutouts. That’s fewer shutouts than Ervin Santana. That’s fewer shutouts than Jim Deshaies. That’s 10% of the shutouts that Claude Osteen threw. Granted, Osteen spent the bulk of his career pitching for the Dodgers in the 1960’s, but Osteen threw 6 shutouts for teams other than the Dodgers, which is still 50% more shutouts than Pettitte threw. Orel Hershiser threw more shutouts IN ONE MONTH than Pettitte did in his entire career.   

Andruw Jones just barely hung on this year, holding steady at 7.5%, so he gets to come back for a third ballot. I’m not going to advocate for Jones’ election, but he’s a fascinating candidate, and he deserves to at least be considered, since he had such a great peak. Maybe he’s just taking the Harold Baines path to the Hall of Fame. 

There were some good, steady players who didn’t make it to 5% of the vote and dropped off after one year. I’m not going to say any of them should be Hall of Famers, but there were some darn good players in there, like Michael Young, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, and Roy Oswalt. I always liked Michael Young; he was just an excellent hitter. He ended up with a .300 batting average over 8,600 plate appearances, which is impressive. 

And at the very bottom were two players I enjoyed, the perfectly named Placido Polanco and the speedy Juan Pierre. Polanco somehow managed to get two votes, so I assume that he probably saved two BBWAA members from drowning. Pierre didn’t get any votes, despite stealing 614 bases over his career, which ranks 18^th all-time. I was at a game where Juan Pierre walked, so I was pretty excited to see that rare occurrence. I remember around the time that Pierre got his 2,000^th hit people were wringing their hands about Pierre possibly getting 3,000 hits, because they didn’t think he was a Hall of Famer, even if he got to 3,000 hits. As it turned out, Pierre finished his career a mere 783 hits short of 3,000, so those prognosticators had good reason to be worried.

Today's Game Era Committee Hall of Fame Ballot

Harold Baines, trying to look cool while wearing one of the worst uniforms ever.

Joe Carter, celebrating the biggest home run of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1993.

Lee Smith, throwing some heat for the Cardinals.

On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame released the ballot for the Today’s Game Era Committee. A replacement for the Veteran’s Committee, the new committees break up the game into different eras. “Today’s Game Era” looks at players who made their most significant contributions from 1988 to the present. There are 10 people on this year’s ballot—one executive, three managers, and six players. It’s a pretty weak ballot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if no one is elected.

Let’s take a look at the non-players first:

George Steinbrenner: Oh, you mean the guy who made illegal campaign contributions to Richard Nixon’s re-election campaign in 1972 and was convicted of obstruction of justice? Oh, the guy who was banned from day to day management of the team he owned in 1990—a result of his decision to hire a gambler to try to find some dirt on Dave Winfield? Steinbrenner was a first-class jerk in my book, and I don’t think he belongs in the Hall of Fame. 

Davey Johnson: An excellent second baseman in his day, Johnson actually has a higher OPS+ than Joe Carter: 110 to 105. Johnson also has one of the most unlikely 40 home run seasons ever. In 1973 he slammed 43 homers for the Braves; his highest total in any other season was 18. Johnson was part of a trio of Braves who hit 40 home runs that year, joining him were Hank Aaron and Darrell Evans. However, Johnson is on the ballot for his skill as a manager. Johnson led the 1986 Mets to a World Series win—the only time any of his teams ever made it to the Fall Classic. Johnson won 1,372 games, good for 31^st all-time. He lost only 1,071, giving him a .562 winning percentage. That winning percentage might be Johnson’s ticket to the Hall, as it’s higher than HOF managers Tommy Lasorda, Dick Williams, Miller Huggins, Wilbert Robinson, and Whitey Herzog, to name some other managers whose win totals are close to Johnson’s. 

Charlie Manuel: I’m surprised he made it on the ballot. With exactly 1,000 wins, he would have the least wins of any manager in the Hall of Fame. There’s simply no reason to pick Manuel, let alone to pick him over Johnson and Lou Piniella, unless the Committee has a real soft spot for the 2008 Phillies.

Lou Piniella: After a long playing career, which included winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 1969, Piniella managed the New York Yankees twice under George Steinbrenner, and then had better luck with the Cincinnati Reds, leading them to a sweep in the 1990 World Series. While that was Piniella’s lone managerial appearance in the World Series, he racked up 1,835 victories, 16^th on the all-time list. Piniella’s winning percentage of .517 is significantly lower than Johnson’s, but I think Piniella’s win total will be enough to get him in the Hall of Fame. 

Okay, now on to the players:

Harold Baines: One of my favorite players when I was growing up, Baines finished his career with some excellent counting stats:  2,866 hits, 384 home runs, and 1,628 RBI. Baines is 34^th on the all-time RBI list, and the only players above him who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are linked to PEDs—Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa—or aren’t eligible yet—Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, and Miguel Cabrera. That’s not going to be enough to get Baines into the Hall of Fame, but it shows what a prolific hitter he was, piling up more RBIs than HOFers like Mike Schmidt, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, and Willie Stargell. I bet most baseball fans would be stumped on that piece of trivia. 

One of the factors against Baines is that he spent so much of his career as a designated hitter. After the 1986 season, he never played more than 25 games in the field in a season. Baines is one of those players who had a really great career, but he just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. He also didn’t have much of a peak as a player—there was never a time when he was one of the very best players in the game. Baines lasted five years on the writers’ ballot, but the highest total he received was 6.1%, just barely over the 5% required to stay on the ballot. 

Players like Baines just haven’t been elected to the Hall of Fame lately. The last outfielder or first baseman elected to the Hall of Fame with fewer than 400 home runs was Tim Raines in 2017, who was elected for his ability to get on base and steal bases. Before that you have to go back to 2009, when Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice were elected. Obviously, Henderson had a lot more to offer than just power, as he was probably the best leadoff hitter ever, as well as the all-time stolen base leader. Jim Rice is a good comparison to the kind of player Baines was, as Rice finished his career with 2,452 hits and 382 home runs, well short of any of the “magic numbers” that usually ensure election. However, unlike Baines, Rice’s career was full of black ink, as he led the league in home runs three times, RBIs twice, slugging percentage twice, and total bases four times. Even with all of these offensive credentials, it took Rice the full 15 years to be elected, and sabermetrically inclined people have decried his election. I don’t know if we’ll ever see another outfielder or first baseman elected who has fewer than 400 home runs or 3,000 hits. 

Albert Belle: He was a very good hitter, but an absolute jerk as a human being. He was an excellent hitter at his peak, but his career was too short to pile up enough counting stats. He’s not a Hall of Famer.

Joe Carter: One of the most prolific RBI men of all time, ending up with 1,445 for his career, Carter famously hit a World Series-winning home run for the Blue Jays in 1993. Carter knocked in more than 100 RBIs in 10 seasons—at the time he retired after the 1998 season, only eight players had done that, and they were all Hall of Famers. As mentioned in my comments about Harold Baines, there’s just no way that Carter will get elected, as he’s an outfielder with fewer than 400 home runs and 3,000 hits. Carter hit 396 home runs, and even with another four home runs, he’d still fall short of being a Hall of Famer. Carter’s entire case is based around home runs and RBIs, and sabermetrics significantly weaken Carter’s case. He was a good player, but not a Hall of Famer. Random fact: Carter was a 30-30 guy in 1987, which I totally forgot about. 

Will Clark: Like Carter and Baines, Clark was a very good hitter, but he’s not a Hall of Famer. Clark is just too short on the counting stats. The Hall of Fame isn’t looking for first basemen who gathered 2,176 hits, 284 home runs, and 1,205 RBIs. Clark was an excellent hitter throughout his career—he even hit .319 in 2000, his last year in the majors. 

Orel Hershiser: Like Will Clark, Hershiser probably projected to be a Hall of Famer after his dominant first few seasons. However, injuries took their toll in the early 1990’s, and even though Hershiser was able to bounce back and have some excellent seasons with the Cleveland Indians, he ended his career with 204 wins, a pretty low total for a prospective Hall of Famer. For me, Hershiser was an excellent pitcher, but he falls short of being a Hall of Famer. That being said, his 1988 season was pretty darn amazing.

Lee Smith: For many years, Smith held the all-time saves record, finishing his career with 478. Only Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have surpassed that total. Hoffman is now in the Hall, and Rivera will undoubtedly be a first-ballot choice. Does that mean Smith should get in too? It’s difficult to say how the Hall of Fame should judge closers, since so few of them have been elected, and because the job keeps changing from decade to decade. 

In one way, Smith has the strongest argument of any of the players on the ballot to be elected to the Hall, since he spent 15 years on the writers’ ballot and had significant support. Smith wasn’t just barely hanging on, his support ranged from a high of 50.6% on the 2012 ballot to a low of 29.9% on the 2014 ballot. Side note: it’s really odd that his support dropped so much in just two years. Every player that has received 50% of the votes required for election has eventually gotten in, with the exception of Gil Hodges. Smith is making his first appearance on an “era committee” ballot, so it will be interesting to see how he fares.