2023 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Results

Photo montage of Scott Rolen, 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame inductee.

Yesterday the results of the voting for the 2023 BBWAA ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame were announced. As I correctly predicted, Scott Rolen was the only player the BBWAA elected to the Hall of Fame this year. Rolen just barely squeaked in, getting 5 votes over the 292 needed for election. Rolen set a new record for the lowest vote percentage in a player’s first year on the ballot who was eventually elected by the BBWAA. When Rolen debuted on the ballot in 2018, he was overshadowed by the quartet the BBWAA elected: Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman. Rolen received just 10.2% of the vote in 2018. I’ll admit, I didn’t even specifically mention Rolen in his first couple of years on the ballot. I’m pleased that Rolen was elected, he deserves it, as one of the best third basemen ever. JAWS ranks Rolen as the 10th best 3rd baseman ever, and I wouldn’t disagree with that. 

Moving down the ballot, Todd Helton fell 11 votes short of election, so I feel confident he’ll be elected in 2024. He was an excellent player, and of course his stats are a little skewed by playing half of his games at Coors Field.  

Billy Wagner moved up nicely to 68.1%, so he’ll probably get in. Wagner has two more years on the ballot, so it just depends on the writers being able to expand their minds enough to let Adrain Beltre, Todd Helton, and Wagner in next year. Come on BBWAA voters, it’s not that hard! You CAN let in more than one player at a time! I don’t have strong feelings about Billy Wagner, but I’m fine if he gets in. He was one of the more dominant closers for a long time. 

Andruw Jones made a 16% gain on this ballot, moving up to 58.1% of the vote in his 6th year on the ballot. Jones could break Rolen’s record of lowest percentage in a player’s first season, as he debuted in 2018 with just 7.3% of the vote. I’d be fine with Jones getting in. He was a superb defensive player-obviously, that’s not the only reason people are voting for him, but I think it’s interesting that baseball has very few players who are in the Hall of Fame strictly for their defense. Jones had a fantastic 11-year run with the Braves from 1997-2007, but after he turned 30, his career just fell off a cliff. If Jones gets in, I wonder if that would signal a change where we’d see more short-peak players elected to the Hall of Fame. 

Gary Sheffield moved up to 55%, but he only has 1 more year left on the ballot, and Helton, Wagner, and Jones ahead of him on the ballot. Some writer said something akin to “Why did Big Papi get in on the first ballot and Sheffield isn’t in?” It’s a valid question. Sheffield was a terrible defender, with negative 27.7 DWAR, but he still went out to field a position in 2,210 games, while David Ortiz only played 278 career games in the field. If Sheffield had been made a full-time DH early in his career, would he be in the Hall of Fame now? I’d also argue that Ortiz has a better narrative than Sheffield does. Oritz brings championships to Boston, swears on live TV, becomes a national hero, while Sheffield bounces from franchise to franchise.  

Carlos Beltran did well in his debut on the ballot, getting 46.5% of the vote. Without his role in the 2017 Astros cheating scandal, I think Beltran would have sailed into the Hall of Fame, and deservedly so. He’s one of the best switch-hitters ever, and one of the best center fielders ever. Should Beltran’s role in the cheating scandal override his impressive resume? I don’t know if it totally should, but I’m fine with Beltran having to wait a bit for election. As usual, MLB totally botched their handling of the 2017 cheating scandal, but they were really screwed because of course the Astros players all retreated into silence, so then the only thing MLB could do was offer immunity to the current players and punish managers, coaches, and front-office personnel. So, Beltran didn’t get to become the New York Mets manager in 2020. Is that fair? Not really.  

In his final year on the ballot, Jeff Kent tied with Beltran at 46.5% of the vote. It was Kent’s highest vote total in his 10 years on the ballot. I think Kent should be a Hall of Famer, and it has continually puzzled me that he didn’t fare better. But he’s one of those players who had a reputation, fairly or unfairly, for being “difficult” with the press, and perhaps that hurt him. I predict that Kent will be elected by an Era Committee in the future.  

A Rod gained 4 votes, and moved up 1.4%, to 35.7%. That says to me that his support isn’t very fluid. The people who support him aren’t going to move, and no one new is going to be swayed to his side.  

Manny Ramirez gained 4.3%, but he’s still a long way from 75%. 

Omar Vizquel was the only returning player whose support dropped, because of allegations of spousal abuse, and also sexual harassment of a minor league batboy. Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote in 2020, and now that’s down to 19.5%.  

Andy Pettitte is at 17%. Ho hum. 

Bobby Abreu moved up to 15.4% in his 4th year on the ballot. That’s good, he’s climbing out of the Kenny Loggins danger zone. I think Abreu should be strongly considered for the Hall, and hopefully he’ll continue to gain votes. Here’s an interesting stat for you-the only players who have 400 or more stolen bases and 250 or more home runs are: Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan, Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Craig Biggio, and Bobby Abreu. Not a bad list to be on.  

Jimmy Rollins moved up to 12.9% in his 2nd year on the ballot. I think Rollins should be strongly considered for the Hall as well, so I’m glad he’s over 10%. 

Mark Buehrle made a 5% gain, to 10.8%. I’m fine with Buehrle staying on the ballot, although I’m not really convinced he’s a Hall of Famer.  

I said that Francisco Rodriguez was the only other newcomer to the 2023 ballot that would possibly get more than 5% of the vote, and I was correct, as he got 10.8%, which is more votes than I thought he’d get. 

After losing votes in 2022, my boy Torii Hunter gained 6 votes to move up to 6.9% in his 3rd year on the ballot. Phew! As a Twins fan, Torii Hunter was one of my favorite players, so I’m always holding my breath for him every year, hoping he’ll stay above 5%. Hunter won 9 Gold Gloves, and he’s in the top 100 all-time in total bases, doubles, home runs, RBIs, and extra base hits. I’m biased, so I don’t know if Hunter should really be in the Hall of Fame, but lesser resumes have won election to the Hall of Fame. Just sayin’.  

All of the other newcomers to the 2023 ballot failed to get 5% of the vote. It’s always interesting to recap the BBWAA balloting, and you can check back here when the 2024 ballot is announced.  

2023 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Preview

Scott Rolen, who I predict will join the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2023.

On January 24th, the BBWAA will announce the results of the 2023 Hall of Fame vote. With Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa aging off the ballot after 2022, 2023 should be a quieter year for the BBWAA.  

I’ll discuss the new candidates first, since this is one of the weakest groups of new candidates in recent memory. Carlos Beltran is the only new candidate who will get over 5% of the vote and stay on the ballot. If he hadn’t been in the middle of the 2017 Astros cheating scandal, Beltran might have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don’t think that’s a possibility now, but Beltran will get over 5% of the vote and remain on the ballot.  

The rest of the newcomers are: Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jhonny Peralta, Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street, Jered Weaver, and Jayson Werth. Okay, so maybe Francisco Rodriguez gets over 5% of the vote too, but his obnoxious personality and assault charges give him a lot of baggage. These players all had some fine seasons, but none of them are close to being Hall of Famers.  

Let’s talk a look at the returning players, in order of their percentage of the vote in 2022: 

Scott Rolen: With 63.2% of the vote last year, this should be the year that Rolen gets elected to the Hall of Fame. And I think Rolen is deserving of the honor, he’s one of the best 3rd basemen of all-time. The BBWAA Ballot Tracker has Rolen being named on 80% of the ballots that have been made public so far. Those numbers usually go down once the actual balloting is revealed, but it certainly bodes well for Rolen. 

Todd Helton: At 52% of the vote in 2022, Helton has farther to go than Rolen, but the Ballot Tracker shows him just behind Rolen at 79.5% of the vote. With a weak first-year class, voters will no doubt give Helton a closer look, and even if he isn’t inducted in 2023, he probably will be elected on a future ballot. 

Billy Wagner: He’s on his 8th year on the ballot, so he needs a significant boost if he’s going to be elected by the BBWAA. I don’t have strong feelings either way about Wagner getting elected. He wasn’t a player I paid a lot of attention to, and then suddenly he’s on the Hall of Fame ballot and I’m like, “Woah, he’s got 422 saves?”  

Andruw Jones: He’s seen solid increases in his vote totals, and with a weak class, expect another big gain for Jones, probably putting him over 50% and heralding his eventual election. If you’re looking for peak value, Jones is your guy. 

Gary Sheffield: In his 9th year on the ballot, Sheff would need a Larry Walker-like jump to get in. My prediction is that his numbers will increase, but the BBWAA won’t vote him in. 

Alex Rodriguez: It’s anyone’s guess where A-Rod's vote totals will go in his second year on the ballot. Will his support remain fairly static, or will he make a significant jump that would point towards eventual election by the BBWAA?  

Jeff Kent: In his last year on the ballot, Kent doesn’t really have a chance to get in. I’ve always felt that he was unfairly overlooked by the BBWAA. Maybe the Era Committees will rectify that mistake.  

Manny Ramirez: Manny will continue to languish on the ballot in Mannytown, not getting enough votes to get in, but still staying over 5% to remain for another year. 

Omar Vizquel: At one point, it looked like Vizquel had a shot to get in the Hall. That’s done now, thanks to all of the icky allegations against him.  

Andy Pettitte: See Manny Ramirez.  

Jimmy Rollins: Jimmy got 9.4% of the vote in 2022, his first year on the ballot. I hope writers take another look at Rollins-he definitely deserves to stay on the ballot.  

Bobby Abreu: The Ballot Tracker shows Abreu with a 10% gain, at 19.3%. That would be great, since I think you can make a solid case for Abreu’s credentials.  

Mark Buehrle: Just squeaked in for another year on the ballot. Ballot Tracker shows him gaining, so maybe he’ll stay on for another year. I don’t really think Buehrle is a Hall of Famer, but I’m fine if he stays on the ballot all 10 years. 

Torii Hunter: At 5.3% in 2022, my man Torii gets another shot in 2023. The bad news is that Ballot Tracker shows him at 2.9%, well below the 5% threshold. I hope Torii stays on the ballot. As a Twins fan, I’ve always liked him as a player.  

My prediction is that Scott Rolen will be the only player elected on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.