If I Had a Vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame

I realized when reading my summary of the 2026 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, that I didn’t explicitly say who I would vote for, if I had a vote.  

I would vote for: 

Bobby Abreu 

Carlos Beltran 

Torii Hunter 

Andruw Jones 

Jimmy Rollins 

Chase Utley 

I know, I could vote for 10 players, so I’m leaving 4 spaces blank, but I’m okay with that. These are the players on the ballot that I feel are most worthy of the Hall of Fame. You have 3 fantastic center fielders, Beltran, Hunter, and Jones, excellent middle infielders in Rollins and Utley, and in Abreu, a multi-tool player who was often overlooked during his career.  

There are other excellent players on the ballot, including starting pitchers Mark Buehrle, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, and Andy Pettitte. But for me, these pitchers just fell a little short of the Hall of Fame. 

2023 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Preview

Scott Rolen, who I predict will join the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2023.

On January 24th, the BBWAA will announce the results of the 2023 Hall of Fame vote. With Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa aging off the ballot after 2022, 2023 should be a quieter year for the BBWAA.  

I’ll discuss the new candidates first, since this is one of the weakest groups of new candidates in recent memory. Carlos Beltran is the only new candidate who will get over 5% of the vote and stay on the ballot. If he hadn’t been in the middle of the 2017 Astros cheating scandal, Beltran might have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don’t think that’s a possibility now, but Beltran will get over 5% of the vote and remain on the ballot.  

The rest of the newcomers are: Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jhonny Peralta, Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street, Jered Weaver, and Jayson Werth. Okay, so maybe Francisco Rodriguez gets over 5% of the vote too, but his obnoxious personality and assault charges give him a lot of baggage. These players all had some fine seasons, but none of them are close to being Hall of Famers.  

Let’s talk a look at the returning players, in order of their percentage of the vote in 2022: 

Scott Rolen: With 63.2% of the vote last year, this should be the year that Rolen gets elected to the Hall of Fame. And I think Rolen is deserving of the honor, he’s one of the best 3rd basemen of all-time. The BBWAA Ballot Tracker has Rolen being named on 80% of the ballots that have been made public so far. Those numbers usually go down once the actual balloting is revealed, but it certainly bodes well for Rolen. 

Todd Helton: At 52% of the vote in 2022, Helton has farther to go than Rolen, but the Ballot Tracker shows him just behind Rolen at 79.5% of the vote. With a weak first-year class, voters will no doubt give Helton a closer look, and even if he isn’t inducted in 2023, he probably will be elected on a future ballot. 

Billy Wagner: He’s on his 8th year on the ballot, so he needs a significant boost if he’s going to be elected by the BBWAA. I don’t have strong feelings either way about Wagner getting elected. He wasn’t a player I paid a lot of attention to, and then suddenly he’s on the Hall of Fame ballot and I’m like, “Woah, he’s got 422 saves?”  

Andruw Jones: He’s seen solid increases in his vote totals, and with a weak class, expect another big gain for Jones, probably putting him over 50% and heralding his eventual election. If you’re looking for peak value, Jones is your guy. 

Gary Sheffield: In his 9th year on the ballot, Sheff would need a Larry Walker-like jump to get in. My prediction is that his numbers will increase, but the BBWAA won’t vote him in. 

Alex Rodriguez: It’s anyone’s guess where A-Rod's vote totals will go in his second year on the ballot. Will his support remain fairly static, or will he make a significant jump that would point towards eventual election by the BBWAA?  

Jeff Kent: In his last year on the ballot, Kent doesn’t really have a chance to get in. I’ve always felt that he was unfairly overlooked by the BBWAA. Maybe the Era Committees will rectify that mistake.  

Manny Ramirez: Manny will continue to languish on the ballot in Mannytown, not getting enough votes to get in, but still staying over 5% to remain for another year. 

Omar Vizquel: At one point, it looked like Vizquel had a shot to get in the Hall. That’s done now, thanks to all of the icky allegations against him.  

Andy Pettitte: See Manny Ramirez.  

Jimmy Rollins: Jimmy got 9.4% of the vote in 2022, his first year on the ballot. I hope writers take another look at Rollins-he definitely deserves to stay on the ballot.  

Bobby Abreu: The Ballot Tracker shows Abreu with a 10% gain, at 19.3%. That would be great, since I think you can make a solid case for Abreu’s credentials.  

Mark Buehrle: Just squeaked in for another year on the ballot. Ballot Tracker shows him gaining, so maybe he’ll stay on for another year. I don’t really think Buehrle is a Hall of Famer, but I’m fine if he stays on the ballot all 10 years. 

Torii Hunter: At 5.3% in 2022, my man Torii gets another shot in 2023. The bad news is that Ballot Tracker shows him at 2.9%, well below the 5% threshold. I hope Torii stays on the ballot. As a Twins fan, I’ve always liked him as a player.  

My prediction is that Scott Rolen will be the only player elected on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.  

2022 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Results

 

Hall of Famer David Ortiz. His shirt is amazing.

Well, my prediction earlier this week was correct: David Ortiz was the only player elected on the 2022 Hall of Fame BBWAA ballot. Ortiz was named on 77.9% of the ballots, just above the 75% needed for election. Let’s go down the ballot and see how everyone did. Overall, it was not an exciting ballot. In contrast to the past few years, where just about everyone has gained support, some players held steady, and one saw a huge decline.

Barry Bonds: He received 260 votes, up from 248 in 2021, for 66% of the vote. My prediction proved correct, that Bonds and Roger Clemens wouldn’t be able to make the jump in their final year. I’m fascinated to see how the Era Committee will handle Bonds and Clemens. I can see it going either way: contemporaries of Bonds and Clemens might say “They were so amazing, they deserve to be in,” or they might say “They cheated, no way.” As great as Bonds and Clemens were, I’m fine with them being kept out of the Hall of Fame because I think they’re both cheaters.

Roger Clemens: He received 257 votes, up from 247 in 2021, for 65.2% of the vote. See my above comment on Barry Bonds.

Scott Rolen: Had a nice increase this year, moving up from 52.9% in 2021 to 63.2%. I think Rolen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, he’s one of the best 3^rd basemen ever, and it seems like the writers are finally starting to understand that. Rolen still has another 5 years left on the BBWAA ballot, so he should make it to 75% without a problem.

Curt Schilling: Saw his support drop from 71.1% last year to 58.6% this year, his final year on the BBWAA ballot. Schilling is a total jerk. After last year’s results, he asked to be removed from the BBWAA ballot, but no one listened to him because he’s a jerk and a whiner. Schilling will now be considered by the Era Committees, which will have their hands full of excellent candidates with glaring problems.

Todd Helton: Moves up to 52% in his 4^th year on the ballot, which bodes well for his eventual induction. I don’t have strong feelings about Helton.

Billy Wagner: Moves up to 51%. Wagner only has 3 more years left on the BBWAA ballot, so the clock is ticking. But stranger things have happened, so he could still get in. I don’t have strong feelings about Wagner or his candidacy. Judging closers is a hard thing.

Andruw Jones: Saw another nice increase in his totals, moving up from 33.9% in 2021 to 41.4% this year. Jones has 5 years left on the ballot, so it’s possible that he keeps increasing his totals and gets in. He’s one of the ultimate peak value players-he was fantastic, and then his career just imploded. And now that Tony Oliva was elected, we finally have a post-expansion Hall of Famer with fewer than 2,000 career hits, which may bode well for Jones’ chances. But I don’t know how many BBWAA voters are sitting around saying “Tony Oliva got in? Now I can FINALLY vote for Andruw Jones!” I mean, it’s possible.

Gary Sheffield: He lost 3 votes from last year, but his percentage stayed the same, 40.6%. That doesn’t bode well for his chances, as he only has 2 years left on the BBWAA ballot. Great hitter, but a terrible defender.

Alex Rodriguez: Debuted with 34.3% of the vote, a solid start for his HOF candidacy. However, Bonds and Clemens both debuted with slightly higher percentages (36% and 37%) and never got in. The real question is, will A-Rod gain next year? If you were tired of the controversy over Bonds and Clemens, now you can enjoy the A-Rod show for the next 10 years.

Jeff Kent: Lost 1 vote, but his percentage slightly increased thanks to fewer total ballots. Kent only has 1 year left on the BBWAA ballot, and I don’t think he’s going to make a 40+ percentage point gain. Too bad because I think he’s deserving of a spot in the Hall. One of the best offensive second basemen ever.

Manny Ramirez: Moves up less than 1% point. Manny has 4 more years on the ballot, and I don’t see him getting in.

Omar Vizquel: Dropped like a rock from 49.1% in 2021 to just 23.9% this year. The reason? Assault allegations by Vizquel’s ex-wife that first surfaced around the time of voting in 2020, and now there are new allegations of sexual harassment from a batboy from the Birmingham Barons, the team that Vizquel managed in 2019. I never thought Omar Vizquel would be such a subject of scandal. I’d say his chances of being elected are slim and none. It’s a huge fall for a player who was named on more than 50% of the ballots in 2020. At that time, it seemed like Vizquel had a surprisingly good chance of making the Hall of Fame.

Sammy Sosa: Never made it close to getting into the Hall. Sosa now drops off the BBWAA ballot to be considered by the Era Committee. I doubt he’ll make it in through the Era Committee.

Andy Pettitte: Dropped to 10.7% of the vote. Pettitte was a very good pitcher, but he just wasn’t as dominant as the truly great pitchers of his era. It’s interesting that he lost votes on a ballot with very few viable starting pitcher candidates.

Jimmy Rollins: Debuts with 9.4% of the vote. I’m happy that Rollins will stay on the ballot for next year. I think he should be a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame. He was an excellent hitting shortstop, and a very good fielder as well. The ballot will unclog in 2023, so perhaps Rollins will draw more support.

Bobby Abreu: Lost 1 vote, but he stays on the ballot with 8.6% of the vote. I think Abreu should be a serious candidate, and like Rollins hopefully he’ll draw more support on a less-crowded ballot. More writers should look at Abreu’s interesting career.

Mark Buehrle: In his 2^nd year on the ballot, Buehrle drops from 11% to just 5.8%. It was a weak year for starting pitchers on this ballot, so I thought that could give Buehrle a boost, but that didn’t happen. I don’t really think Buehrle’s a Hall of Famer, but he was a good solid pitcher for many years.

Torii Hunter: Also in his 2^nd year on the ballot, Hunter dropped from 9.5% to just hanging on at 5.3%. I was happy that Hunter was above 5% last year, but a little surprised that he was close to 10%. But why did his support almost drop in half this year? Are there voters who only vote for some players their first year on the ballot? Perhaps Hunter will get more support with a weak class coming up in 2023. I don’t think Hunter is truly a Hall of Famer, but he was always one of my favorite players, so I hope he stays on the ballot.

Everyone below this point got fewer than 5% of the vote, and will drop off the ballot:

Joe Nathan: A great closer for the Twins, Nathan was one of the best closers in baseball from 2004-2013. His ERA with the Twins was a miniscule 2.16. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS score ranks Nathan as the 8^th best relief pitcher of all-time.

Tim Hudson: Was barely above 5% in 2021, his first year on the ballot, and this year he dropped to just 3%. I don’t think Hudson’s a Hall of Famer, but I think he’s a guy you could at least have a conversation about. Hudson compares well to Buehrle: Hudson had a better won-loss record, a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, and more strikeouts. So why vote for Buehrle but not Hudson? Who knows?

I’m not going to profile the rest of the players in detail, but they include talents like Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, and Carl Crawford, players whose talents shone brightly for a while before fading. Mark Teixeira gets added to the ever-growing list of players with more than 400 home runs who don’t receive even 5% of the vote.

And that sums it up for this year’s BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Come back at the end of 2022 when the 2023 ballot is released.