Thoughts on the 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame Election

Jim Thome, crushing a dinger for the Twins in 2010.

Vladimir Guerrero smoking a line drive with the Montreal Expos.

On Wednesday, it was announced that the BBWWA elected four new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame: Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, and Trevor Hoffman. Jones and Thome were elected on their first ballot, while Guerrero and Hoffman made it in on their second try.

All four of the players selected were excellent selections. Jones was one of the best hitting third basemen ever, and one of the best switch-hitters of all time. Thome was one of the most feared sluggers of his era, slamming 612 home runs in a career untainted by any connection to PEDs. As a Twins fan, Thome was the player I hated to see come to bat when he was with the Indians. You knew that every single at bat he was a threat to homer. I always liked Thome, so I was glad when he went to the Phillies, because then I could cheer for him. And then he went to the White Sox, and beat the Twins in a one game playoff in 2008. But then he came to the Twins in 2010, and all was right with the world. It was pretty great watching Thome tear it up during that season, which was also the first year at Target Field. My Dad works as an usher for the University of Minnesota, and he took Jim Thome and Michael Cuddyer’s tickets when they attended a U2 concert at TCF Bank Stadium in 2011. My Dad recognized Thome, talked to him a bit, and somehow touched Jim Thome’s bicep. I wish I could have seen that interaction. 

Guerrero was a dynamic player-at the beginning a true five-tool athlete, with a cannon for an arm. Hoffman was the all-time saves leader late in his career, and his 601 are second all-time. In a position that seems to chew up players quickly, Hoffman was one of the most consistent closers of the 1990’s and 2000’s. 

Among players remaining on the ballot, Edgar Martinez moved up to 70.4% of the vote. Next year will be his last year on the ballot, and with the usual bump in the voting that provides, it seems pretty likely he’ll be elected. Martinez is one of those players that I just don’t have strong feelings about one way or the other. If he gets in next year, that’s fine, but I wouldn’t be outraged if he wasn’t in the Hall of Fame. I appreciate how good he was as a player, but I’m just not passionate about advocating for him.

In his 5^th year on the ballot, Mike Mussina moved up to 63.4%, so he’ll probably be elected in 2019 or 2020. I’m very glad to see Mussina moving up so much, as I think he deserves to be elected. 

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens continue to be right next to each other in the voting. They both moved up a couple of percentage points, but Bonds’ vote total stayed the same at 238, and Clemens only gained 3 votes, moving from 239 to 242. With four more years left on the ballot, it will be very interesting to see if these two players, such symbols of the steroid era, are elected or not. 

In the “he was such a great player, but SUCH a jerk category,” Curt Schilling went back over 50% of the vote, after dropping to 45% last year. 

Omar Vizquel made a very strong debut on the ballot with 37%, which could bode well for him on future ballots. Vizquel’s a really interesting player. He was a defensive whiz at shortstop, but not much of a threat with the bat, with an OPS+ of just 82 for his career. However, Vizquel did collect 2,877 hits, putting him very close to the magic 3,000 mark. 

Larry Walker got the most support he’s ever received this year, moving up to 34.1%. Walker is basically the Canadian Edgar Martinez for me. I can appreciate that he was really good, but I just don’t feel strongly about him.

Fred McGriff continues to languish in the low 20% region, meaning it’s pretty unlikely he will gain the more than 50% he needs to be elected next year, which will be his last year on the ballot. As I’ve written before, I really like Fred McGriff. He was one of the most consistent players of the 1990’s, and he just seems like a really nice guy. I mean, his nickname was “Crime Dog.” Just that alone should get him into Cooperstown!

Jeff Kent continues to languish near the bottom of the ballot, despite being one of the best-hitting second basemen of his day. I wonder what voters don’t like about him? He never got great press coverage, but that can’t be the only reason why his vote totals are so low. 

Andruw Jones debuted with 7.3% of the vote, so he at least gets to come back again next year. Jones is a fascinating player who seemed to be well on his way to Cooperstown before his career suddenly imploded, seemingly overnight. Jones definitely has the peak one would expect for a Hall of Famer, but he didn’t even play long enough to get 2,000 hits, ending up with 1,933. 

One of my favorite players, Jamie Moyer, sadly did not get enough votes to remain on the ballot. Moyer only got 10 votes, or 2.4%, short of the 5% needed to remain on the ballot. I always enjoyed following Moyer’s improbable career, as he kept fooling hitters with slow pitches well into his 40’s. Oh well, Moyer’s awesomeness will live on, just not with a plaque in Cooperstown.

Johan Santana also got 2.4% of the vote. As a Twins fan, Santana was one of my favorites during our run of great baseball during the 2000’s. Santana had several great seasons, and while I know he’s not really good enough to be in the Hall of Fame, he was pretty fantastic. I vividly remember watching his 17 strikeout game on TV in 2007. I really thought he was going to pitch a perfect game. It’s one of the most dominant pitching performances I’ve seen. 

Johnny Damon got just 1.9% of the vote, despite having some really great career numbers. Damon collected 2,769 hits, scored 1,668 runs, hit 235 home runs, and stole 408 bases. I don’t know if Damon’s really a Hall of Famer, but I think he deserved to stay on the ballot. I think Damon is one of those players who just doesn’t pass the “smell test” for most people. Sure, Damon was a really good player, but he doesn’t FEEL like a Hall of Famer. 

Carlos Lee got just one vote, but I’ve always liked him, even though he played for the hated White Sox. I remember going to a game at the Metrodome in 2003 or 2004, and someone had a sign in the outfield that said, “Carlos Lee isn’t very good.” The sign itself was really funny, as though it was proof that Minnesotans are too polite to trash talk. Lee laughed at the sign, which made me appreciate his sense of humor.

Is Jamie Moyer a Hall of Famer?

It's baseball season, and since the opening of Target Field, I've been thinking about baseball more than usual. Yes, baseball really was meant to be played outdoors. Sorry, Metrodome, stadium of my youthful dreams and site of two World Championships, but Target Field is amazing!

I love baseball stats. I could read baseball stats for hours. Okay, maybe sometimes I spend too much time on baseball-reference.com...but it's fun. I've been following the Phillies' 47-year-old starting pitcher Jamie Moyer as he makes his way up the all-time wins list, he's currently in 40th place with 263 wins. Which leads to the question: is Jamie Moyer a Hall of Famer? (Apologies to baseball-reference, they had a blog post about this very topic just a week or two ago.) For those who would say no way, I say, look a little closer. Now, I'm not going to say that if he retired today, Moyer is, or should be, a definite Hall of Famer. I just want to examine his credentials. Clearly, there are worse pitchers than Jamie Moyer in the Hall of Fame. (Jesse "Pop" Haines, I'm looking at you.) However, as Bill James points out, this is not a good argument to use, since the Hall of Fame has made some pretty bad decisions regarding admittance. If we started admitting everyone who was better than the worst inductees, we'd have a huge Hall of Fame.

Moyer's career has been an up and down one, he started out as a starter for the Cubs in 1986, then turned into an ineffective reliever for the Rangers, a poor starter for the Cardinals, and didn't pitch at all in the majors in 1992. His career seemed to be over at the age of 29. But somehow Moyer rejuvenated himself, and made his way back to the majors. He didn't really get going until he was traded to the Seattle Mariners in 1996. In 1997 his record was 17-5, the first time he had ever won more than 13 games in a season. At the age of 34, he was finally a great starter. Moyer won 20 games in 2001, and 21 in 2003, suffered through a lackluster 2004 season, but rebounded to go 16-7 for the Phillies in 2008, at the age of 45. His career record is 263-199, and on May 7th, he became the oldest pitcher to ever throw a shutout.

How does Moyer stack up against other Hall of Fame pitchers? He is not, and never has been, a superstar. He hasn't won any Cy Young Awards, and has only been selected to the All-Star team once. He's never led the league in wins or strikeouts, and he's not a power pitcher. He's just been consistently good, and now he's at a point where the Hall of Fame debate can start to happen. Of the starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame, Moyer has more wins than 31 of them. And I didn't count any relievers, just every HOF starter from guys like Addie Joss, Dizzy Dean, and Sandy Koufax, whose careers were cut short by injury, (or death, in Joss's case) to HOFers like Don Drysdale, Jim Bunning, Juan Marichal, and Bob Gibson. Moyer has fewer wins than 27 HOF starting pitchers, so he's right in the middle of the pack. While this doesn't prove that Moyer is in the upper echelon of HOF starters, it proves that, just looking at wins, he is more than qualified for the HOF.

While reaching 300 wins is considered a benchmark for HOF pitchers, I looked at every pitcher with more than 250 wins. Every post-1900 pitcher who is eligible for the HOF with more than 250 wins is in the HOF, except for Bert Blyleven, who fell just short this year and will make it in next year, Tommy John, Jim Kaat, and Jack Morris. So, with 263 wins and counting, does this mean that Moyer will eventually get in? Perhaps, although the sportswriters voting for the HOF have been tough on Kaat and John, the two pitchers most similar to Moyer. Kaat and John never got very close all 15 years they were on the ballot, and they can now only be voted in by the Veterans' Committee, which has been very stingy lately with who they let in. Kaat and John were similar to Moyer in that they were not power pitchers who put up big strikeout numbers, and they pitched forever, Kaat for 25 seasons, John for 26 seasons. (Moyer is in his 24th season.) Kaat and John also had very short "peaks" of performance, as did Moyer, and all three pitchers were very durable and had more than their share of 14-12 seasons which don't look that outstanding taken season by season. None of them had very many great seasons, the best is probably Kaat's 1966 season, in which he was 25-13.

The charge could be leveled that Kaat, John, and Moyer are merely "compilers," guys who hang around for a really long time and pile up impressive stats, but who aren't truly "great." I can understand this argument, but I would also argue that anyone who wins 250 games has to be a pretty great player. If these players weren't truly great, they would not have played as long as they did. And also, once you "compile" a certain amount of stats, you are a lock for the Hall of Fame, no matter what. Don Sutton won over 300 games, but he never won a Cy Young Award. (Neither did Nolan Ryan, for that matter.) Sutton only won 20 games in a season once. But what Sutton lacked in peak performance, he made up for in longevity. But Sutton is in the Hall, and he was a great pitcher, he just wasn't as dominant as some of his peers like Steve Carlton or Tom Seaver.

So, where does this leave Jamie Moyer? I think Moyer needs more wins to solidify his HOF candidacy, and honestly, I think he needs 300 wins. If writers are not willing to vote for Tommy John at 288 wins, and Jim Kaat at 283 wins, Moyer is a long shot at 263 wins. The writers have shown that the line is drawn at 300. Give John back his missed 1975 season, give him 13 wins for a total of 301, and he's in. Give Kaat back his partial 1972 season, (he missed time due to injury, he was 10-2 in 15 starts) and a few more starts at the end of his career, and he would be over 300 wins easily. Of course, we can't do that, and it starts us down a slippery slope if we do. But, the point is, Kaat and John are very close to 300 wins and they aren't in, so I don't see Moyer getting in with fewer than 300 wins. It even took Don Sutton 5 tries before he made it in the Hall!

Good luck Jamie Moyer, I'll be watching your starts and I hope you get closer to 300 wins.