2023 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Preview

Scott Rolen, who I predict will join the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2023.

On January 24th, the BBWAA will announce the results of the 2023 Hall of Fame vote. With Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa aging off the ballot after 2022, 2023 should be a quieter year for the BBWAA.  

I’ll discuss the new candidates first, since this is one of the weakest groups of new candidates in recent memory. Carlos Beltran is the only new candidate who will get over 5% of the vote and stay on the ballot. If he hadn’t been in the middle of the 2017 Astros cheating scandal, Beltran might have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don’t think that’s a possibility now, but Beltran will get over 5% of the vote and remain on the ballot.  

The rest of the newcomers are: Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jhonny Peralta, Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street, Jered Weaver, and Jayson Werth. Okay, so maybe Francisco Rodriguez gets over 5% of the vote too, but his obnoxious personality and assault charges give him a lot of baggage. These players all had some fine seasons, but none of them are close to being Hall of Famers.  

Let’s talk a look at the returning players, in order of their percentage of the vote in 2022: 

Scott Rolen: With 63.2% of the vote last year, this should be the year that Rolen gets elected to the Hall of Fame. And I think Rolen is deserving of the honor, he’s one of the best 3rd basemen of all-time. The BBWAA Ballot Tracker has Rolen being named on 80% of the ballots that have been made public so far. Those numbers usually go down once the actual balloting is revealed, but it certainly bodes well for Rolen. 

Todd Helton: At 52% of the vote in 2022, Helton has farther to go than Rolen, but the Ballot Tracker shows him just behind Rolen at 79.5% of the vote. With a weak first-year class, voters will no doubt give Helton a closer look, and even if he isn’t inducted in 2023, he probably will be elected on a future ballot. 

Billy Wagner: He’s on his 8th year on the ballot, so he needs a significant boost if he’s going to be elected by the BBWAA. I don’t have strong feelings either way about Wagner getting elected. He wasn’t a player I paid a lot of attention to, and then suddenly he’s on the Hall of Fame ballot and I’m like, “Woah, he’s got 422 saves?”  

Andruw Jones: He’s seen solid increases in his vote totals, and with a weak class, expect another big gain for Jones, probably putting him over 50% and heralding his eventual election. If you’re looking for peak value, Jones is your guy. 

Gary Sheffield: In his 9th year on the ballot, Sheff would need a Larry Walker-like jump to get in. My prediction is that his numbers will increase, but the BBWAA won’t vote him in. 

Alex Rodriguez: It’s anyone’s guess where A-Rod's vote totals will go in his second year on the ballot. Will his support remain fairly static, or will he make a significant jump that would point towards eventual election by the BBWAA?  

Jeff Kent: In his last year on the ballot, Kent doesn’t really have a chance to get in. I’ve always felt that he was unfairly overlooked by the BBWAA. Maybe the Era Committees will rectify that mistake.  

Manny Ramirez: Manny will continue to languish on the ballot in Mannytown, not getting enough votes to get in, but still staying over 5% to remain for another year. 

Omar Vizquel: At one point, it looked like Vizquel had a shot to get in the Hall. That’s done now, thanks to all of the icky allegations against him.  

Andy Pettitte: See Manny Ramirez.  

Jimmy Rollins: Jimmy got 9.4% of the vote in 2022, his first year on the ballot. I hope writers take another look at Rollins-he definitely deserves to stay on the ballot.  

Bobby Abreu: The Ballot Tracker shows Abreu with a 10% gain, at 19.3%. That would be great, since I think you can make a solid case for Abreu’s credentials.  

Mark Buehrle: Just squeaked in for another year on the ballot. Ballot Tracker shows him gaining, so maybe he’ll stay on for another year. I don’t really think Buehrle is a Hall of Famer, but I’m fine if he stays on the ballot all 10 years. 

Torii Hunter: At 5.3% in 2022, my man Torii gets another shot in 2023. The bad news is that Ballot Tracker shows him at 2.9%, well below the 5% threshold. I hope Torii stays on the ballot. As a Twins fan, I’ve always liked him as a player.  

My prediction is that Scott Rolen will be the only player elected on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.