Like Derek Jeter, Ichiro fell one vote short of being named on every ballot. I wonder who the one person was who didn’t vote for Ichiro? I don’t really care much about this recent fascination of getting 100% of the votes. Babe Ruth didn’t get 100%. Neither did Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Henry Aaron, Willie Mays, Nolan Ryan, or anyone else you might consider the greatest player ever. But it’s become a topic of conversation the last few years. I think if anyone should have received 100% of the vote, it was Ken Griffey Jr., who is as close to a perfect baseball player as I’ve ever seen in my lifetime. I think it’s very strange that Mariano Rivera is the only player to get 100% of the vote. Of course, Rivera deserved to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But I’m surprised he got 100% of the vote. Tom Seaver actually came very close to getting 100% of the vote back in 1992. Seaver wasn’t named on 5 ballots: 3 of those were blank ballots cast by writers who were protesting that Pete Rose was ineligible, one ballot was cast by a writer who was recovering from open-heart surgery, and they missed Seaver’s name, and there was one curmudgeon who never voted for any player in their first year on the ballot. I think Tom Seaver is as close to perfection as you can get for a starting pitcher.
Billy Wagner got in on his 10th ballot. I think he deserves it, but he’s just not a player that excited me very much. But I’m happy for him.
I predicted no one else besides Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner would be elected this year because the writers can rarely deal with a stacked ballot. And this counted as a stacked ballot, with 2 first-ballot guys, and 3 returning players who had received over 50% of the vote last year.
Carlos Beltran ended up with 70.3% of the vote, so he’ll make it in next year.
Andruw Jones had a solid increase to 66.2%. With a relatively weak ballot coming up next year, he should get in next year. Jones only has 2 more years on the ballot, but I think he’ll make it. Jones has had a fascinating journey, as his first 2 years on the ballot he only got 7.3 and 7.5% of the vote. And I’ll admit, when Jones debuted on the ballot, I wasn’t fully convinced he should be a Hall of Famer. But I thought he deserved to stay on the ballot. Now I hope Jones gets into the Hall of Fame. I do tend to like the compilers better than the short peak guys, but Jones was just so fantastic during his peak. And I like that Jones was also an elite defensive player, so we’re actually talking about an outfielder’s defense.
Chase Utley had a nice bump, jumping up to 39.8% of the vote in his 2nd year on the ballot. That bodes well for his eventual induction. Utley is a short peak player, so it will be interesting to see if he gets in eventually.
A-Rod gained 12 votes, to tick up slightly from 34.8% to 37.1%. With 6 more years on the ballot, he will need to start gaining way more votes to have any chance to make it in. At this point, I will boldly predict that A-Rod will not reach 75% on the BBWAA ballot.
Manny Ramirez had a rather meaningless gain of 10 votes. Even with the obligatory “final year on the ballot” bump, he won’t get in next year. I doubt the Era Committees will vote him in anytime soon either.
Andy Pettitte had a great year, as he almost doubled his vote total, moving up to 27.9%. Maybe memories of his Yankees teammate CC Sabathia made people reconsider Pettitte? He’s moving more into the “serious candidate” territory rather than the “just hanging on” territory he was occupying.
It’s interesting to look at the differences between Pettitte and Sabathia. There’s really not much difference between them as pitchers. For WAR, Sabathia is at 61.8 and Pettitte is at 60.7. Pettitte won more games, and has a slightly better winning percentage, as he went 256-153, and Sabathia went 251-161. Sabathia started more games and threw 250 more innings than Pettitte. Sabathia threw 12 shutouts to Pettitte’s measly 4 shutouts, but I doubt that made much difference in the voting. (I always like to give Pettitte a hard time about his 4 shutouts.) Sabathia has a lower ERA: 3.74 to 3.85. Pettitte walked fewer batters than Sabathia, but their walks per 9 innings rate is exactly the same: 2.8. Sabathia has a lower WHIP than Pettitte: 1.259 to 1.351. The biggest difference between the two pitchers is that Sabathia struck out 645 more batters than Pettitte, and Sabathia got over 3,000 strikeouts, finishing at 3,093 to Pettitte’s 2,448. Sabathia’s strikeouts per 9 innings rate is 7.8, while Pettitte’s is 6.6. Sabathia won 20 games in a season once, while Pettitte did it twice. For seasons of 15 or more wins they are even with 8. Seasons of 14 or more wins, Pettitte gets the edge, 12 to 10.
There’s really not much statistical difference between Sabathia and Pettitte. So why one and not the other? It’s really hard to say. But I admit, if I had a vote for the Hall of Fame, I would have voted the way most of the voters this year did: I would have voted for Sabathia but not Pettitte. I suppose if you really pushed me, I would say that Pettitte doesn’t feel like as much of an elite pitcher as Sabathia, or Pedro Martinez, or Roy Halladay, or Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander. Is that a good reason to not vote for Andy Pettitte? I don’t know. It’s just curious when my mind tells me “Sabathia was better” but then I really drill down into the numbers and there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference.
The Black Ink and Gray Ink scores for Sabathia and Pettitte finally show a bit of a difference. Black Ink is how many times a player led the league in a category, and Gray Ink is how many times they were in the top ten of league leaders. Pettitte’s Black Ink score is 7, and his Gray Ink score is 103. Sabathia’s Black Ink score is 22, and his Gray Ink score is 174. So now my “feeling” that Sabathia was more elite is backed up by some numbers. However, both Sabathia and Pettitte fall well short of the average Hall of Fame pitcher, with an average Black Ink score of 40, and Gray Ink score of 185. In the Hall of Fame Monitor score, Sabathia and Pettitte are dead even at 128. (A likely Hall of Famer would score over 100.) In the Hall of Fame Standards, they are both below the average of 50, with Sabathia at 48 and Pettitte at 44. The JAWS Score ranks Sabathia as the 55th best starting pitcher, and Pettitte as the 82nd best starting pitcher. And maybe that’s finally indicative of the difference between them: the 55th best starting pitcher should be in the Hall of Fame, while the 82nd best starting pitcher is more of a borderline candidate.
Felix Hernandez had a very decent debut on the ballot, getting 20.6% of the vote. That doesn’t really give much of an indication if he’ll get in or not, but it does mean that King Felix will be part of the conversation in future years. Hernandez was a dominant pitcher for several years, from 2009-2015 one of the best pitchers in baseball. But after his last great season in 2015, which was only his age 29 season, he just fell off a cliff. He pitched for 4 more years, with a record of 26-35 over those 4 seasons. For me, I think Hernandez falls short of the Hall of Fame. His career record is 169-136, and that’s just not enough for me. I know, Hernandez won 4 more games than Sandy Koufax. But still, even at his peak, Hernandez was nowhere near as dominant as Koufax was at his peak. I’m fine with Hernandez staying on the ballot, but I wouldn’t vote for him.
Bobby Abreu gained 20 votes, moving up to 19.5%, his best showing on a BBWAA ballot. I’m very excited about this, as I’ve always thought Abreu deserved more of a look for the Hall of Fame. Abreu was never a huge star when he played, he was only a 2-time All-Star, and the highest he ever finished in MVP voting was 12th place in 2009. But from 1998-2004, Abreu put up between 5.2 and 6.6 WAR every year. He was steady, and an interesting mix of skills: he walked a lot, stole a good number of bases, (400 lifetime) had good power, and was a good RBI man. With a weaker ballot coming up, perhaps Abreu will gain again next year as more voters reconsider him.
Jimmy Rollins also gained, moving up to 18% of the vote, his highest total in 4 years on the BBWAA ballot. I’m glad to see this, as I think Rollins deserves serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. Rollins was a shortstop who scored 1,421 runs, collected 2,455 hits, 511 doubles, 115 triples, 231 home runs, 936 RBIs, and stole 470 bases. Those are excellent numbers for a middle infielder. Add 4 Gold Gloves and 1 MVP, and Rollins has a pretty solid resume.
Omar Vizquel gained 2 votes. With just 2 more years on the ballot, he would need a Larry Walker-type turnaround to get in. And also for everyone to forget about his off the field issues.
Dustin Pedroia got 11.9% of the vote, a solid number for a guy who had a very short career. I don’t think Pedroia needs to be a Hall of Famer, but he had several excellent seasons.
Mark Buehrle gained 13 votes, which I was not expecting to happen. His total of 11.4% is his highest in 5 years on the ballot. I’m fine with Buehrle staying on the ballot, but I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer.
Francisco Rodriguez gained 10 votes. I don’t care if he has 437 saves, he’s not a Hall of Famer in my book.
David Wright picked up a few votes to remain on the ballot. It will be interesting to see if Wright stays on the ballot in the years to come. Similar to Pedroia, he’s a guy who had some excellent seasons but fell well short of any of the typical career markers of a Hall of Famer.
My man Torii Hunter just scraped by in his 5th year on the ballot, getting 20 votes to sit at 5.1%. I’m biased, because I’m a Twins fan, but I think Hunter deserves more support. I’m not saying he’s a Hall of Famer, but he should really be more in the 10-20% vote range. Maybe next year.
As expected, none of the other newcomers to the ballot got 5% of the vote, so they will drop off.
Next year will feature a weak incoming class with no one that I think is even a lock to get 5% of the vote. There are a fair amount of low vote total holdovers: next year’s ballot will feature 8 players who received less than 20% of the vote this year. A key question for next year’s ballot is: will any of those holdovers gain traction, or will some of them fall off the ballot?
