Last week, the results of the BBWAA voting were announced. Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, as I correctly predicted back in November.
Since 2022, we’ve seen the election of several players by the era committees with fewer than 2,000 hits: Minnie Minoso, Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, and Dick Allen. Now the BBWAA has elected Andruw Jones, who finished his career with 1,933 hits, making him the first player elected by the BBWAA who debuted after 1960 and compiled fewer than 2,000 hits.
I’m fine with this adjustment. I think Minoso, Hodges, Oliva, and Allen were all very worthy of induction. I think Andruw Jones deserves induction as well—if I had a vote, I would have voted for him.
What I think all of this means is that we might be entering a new era for the Hall of Fame that focuses more on peak value than career milestones. Chase Utley had a huge gain on this ballot, moving up almost 20% to 59.1% of the vote. Utley finished with 1,885 hits, and it looks like he will be elected to the Hall of Fame in either 2027 or 2028. I’m fine with Utley getting into the Hall of Fame; he was a great second baseman. But does this change who should be elected if the BBWAA is now consistently electing players who had 6 or 7 great seasons?
2026 was an interesting ballot: EVERY returning player on the ballot gained votes. This has become more of the norm over the past 8 or 10 years, that almost every returning player will gain votes. But this year it was everyone, from a high of Felix Hernandez gaining 25%, to Omar Vizquel gaining 0.6%. Let’s examine the players, in descending order of their vote totals.
Carlos Beltran: Beltran’s punishment for his role in the 2017 Astros cheating scandal was that he had to wait until his 4th ballot to be elected to the Hall of Fame. Otherwise, this 5-tool center fielder probably would have been a first ballot inductee.
Andruw Jones: His election caps off an amazing rise, as he debuted with only 7.3% of the vote in 2018. In 2019, that only increased to 7.5%. But voters eventually saw that Jones’ combination of amazing defense and power hitting deserved a spot in Cooperstown.
Chase Utley: A 19% increase, to 59.1% of the vote in just his third year on the ballot, means that Utley will most likely get into the Hall in 2027 or 2028.
Andy Pettitte: A 20% increase, up to 48.5%, means that after years of languishing near the bottom of the ballot, Pettitte is a very serious candidate. He only has two more years on the BBWAA ballot, but it’s possible he might make it to 75%. I’ll admit that I used to be more dismissive of Pettitte’s case. I used to make fun of his lowly total of 4 career shutouts. But I started to think of Pettitte more seriously last year when I compared his statistics to CC Sabathia’s. There’s so little room between Pettitte and Sabathia that it really made me wonder, “Why does Sabathia feel like a Hall of Famer to me and Pettitte doesn’t?” I don’t have an easy answer for that. If Sabathia is in the Hall of Fame, shouldn’t Pettitte also be in? Probably. I’m still not excited about Pettitte, but I understand why he’s gaining support.
Felix Hernandez: A staggering 25% increase, to 46.1%, means that King Felix is a serious candidate. He still has a way to go to get to 75%, but this is only his second year on the ballot, which bodes well for his eventual induction.
Hernandez was a great pitcher from 2009-2015. But ultimately, he had a very short career, pitching his final major league game at age 33 in 2019. Hernandez’s career record was 169-136, almost the exact same as Bob Forsch, a starter for the Cardinals in the 1970’s and 1980’s who finished with a 168-136 record. Forsch is the 10th most similar pitcher to Hernandez, according to baseball reference. I’m not going to say that Bob Forsch should be a Hall of Famer, and Hernandez was clearly a better pitcher than Forsch. I wrote a long essay about Bob Forsch after he died in 2011. Let’s look at some numbers.
Hernandez had a lower ERA than Forsch, 3.42 to 3.76. Because of the eras they pitched in, Forsch is way ahead of Hernandez in complete games, 67 to 25, and shutouts, 19 to 11. In rate stats, Hernandez had a lower WHIP and hits per 9 innings. Because Hernandez was a strikeout pitcher, he’s way ahead in strikeouts per 9 innings, 8.3 to 3.6. Forsch had a lower rate of home runs per 9 innings pitched, and they’re tied in walks per 9 innings pitched at 2.7.
Forsch did something that Hernandez never did-win 20 games in a season, which he did in 1977. Incredibly, Forsch and Hernandez are tied in seasons of winning 15 games or more with 3 each. Forsch also has the edge in seasons of winning 10 or more games; he had 11 while Hernandez had 10.
I know that Felix Hernandez was more dominant than Bob Forsch. Hernandez led the league in ERA twice, and won 1 Cy Young Award, things that Forsch never did. But the fact that they had the same number of 15-win seasons boggles my mind. The fact that I have to even go through a detailed statistical comparison with Bob Forsch for an extended period of time does not sway me to Felix Hernandez’s Hall of Fame case.
Forsch played for better teams than Hernandez did. The Cardinals' winning percentage between 1974 and 1988 was .514. Between 2005 and 2019, the Mariners' winning percentage was .469. If we look at the statistics of “cheap wins” and “tough losses,” which are wins in non-quality starts, and losses in quality starts, we might expect the difference in the teams they played for to show us more of a difference between Hernandez and Forsch. Nope. Hernandez’s record, minus the cheap wins and tough losses, comes out to 140-93, a .601 winning percentage. Forsch’s record comes out to 126-83, a .603 winning percentage. The difference between Hernandez and Forsch can’t just be chalked up to Forsch playing for better teams. I cannot find as much of a statistical difference as I would like to between Felix Hernandez and Bob Forsch, which I find really baffling.
A Rod: gained just under 3% to move up to 40%, a 24-vote increase from 2025. I stand by my prediction that A Rod will not be voted in by the BBWAA. The fact that he barely moved up on a pretty weak ballot says a lot. After 5 years on the ballot, Rodriguez has increased his vote total by less than 6%, from 34.3% to 40%. Obviously, he needs to gain way more support to be elected by the BBWAA.
Manny Ramirez: A meaningless 4% increase in his 10th and final year on the ballot. Manny will go to the Eras Committee, where he won’t find a sympathetic audience.
Bobby Abreu: Had a solid 11% increase, to 30.8%. Abreu has finally broken out a bit, but he only has 3 years left on the ballot. But anything is possible, now that we’ve seen Larry Walker’s crazy increase and election. Abreu is a strange case, because he was an excellent player who doesn’t quite FEEL like a Hall of Famer. Abreu was quietly excellent, not flashy. I think Abreu deserves the serious consideration he’s now getting for the Hall of Fame.
Jimmy Rollins: Moved up to 25.4%. With 5 years left, I don’t know if Rollins will join the Hall, but hopefully the increases to his Phillies teammates Utley and Abreu will lead to more voters giving Rollins a second look.
Cole Hamels: Another Phillies star; Hamels had a great debut on the ballot, earning 23.8% of the vote. It’s too early to say definitively that Hamels could be a Hall of Famer, but he got a higher vote total than King Felix did last year. And comparing Hamels to Hernandez is useful because they are so similar.
Hernandez: Won-loss record of 169-136, .554 winning percentage, 3.42 ERA, 25 complete games, 11 shutouts, 2,524 strikeouts. Rate stats: 117 ERA+, 3.52 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, 8.2 hits/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9.
Hamels: Won-loss record of 163-122, .572 winning percentage, 3.43 ERA, 17 complete games, 7 shutouts, 2,560 strikeouts. Rate stats: 123 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.183 WHIP, 8.1 hits/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9.
There’s almost no difference between Hamels and Hernandez. Hernandez led the league in ERA twice, tied for the lead in wins in 2009, and won the 2010 AL Cy Young Award. Hamels never led the league in a Triple Crown stat or won a Cy Young Award. Hamels leads in WAR, 59.0 to 49.8, and he also has a higher JAWS score: Hamels ranks as the 72nd best starting pitcher, and Hernandez the 97th best starting pitcher.
If you want Hernandez to be a Hall of Famer, I think you have to vote for Cole Hamels too.
Dustin Pedroia: A very good player, but not a Hall of Famer, in my opinion. Pedroia is very similar to Ian Kinsler. Pedroia had 41.4 OWAR and 15.5 DWAR, for a total of 51.8 WAR. Kinsler had 44.8 OWAR and 14.9 DWAR, for a total of 53.8 WAR. So why is Pedroia at 20% and Kinsler only got 2.5% of the vote last year and dropped off the ballot?
Mark Buehrle: Finally saw a bump in his total, moving him up to 20%. Let’s take a look at Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson. They’re very similar pitchers. Buehrle has more WAR, 60.0 to 56.5 for Hudson. Hudson has a better record, 222-133 to 214-160, and thus a higher winning percentage. Hudson had a lower ERA, 3.49 to 3.81. Hudson had 210 more strikeouts. Buehrle had fewer walks, 734, to 917. In rate stats, Hudson beats Buehrle in ERA+, FIP, WHIP, hits per 9 innings, home runs per 9 innings, and strikeouts per 9 innings. The only rate category where Buehrle is ahead of Hudson is walks per 9 innings; he leads 2.0 to 2.6.
In the Hall of Fame statistics, Hudson also bests Buehrle in 3 of the 4 categories.
Black Ink: Buehrle 12, Hudson 11
Gray Ink: Hudson 143, Buehrle 116
Hall of Fame Monitor: Hudson 66, Buehrle 52 (likely HOFer 100)
Hall of Fame Standards: Hudson 42, Buehrle 31 (likely HOFer 50)
Hudson also wins the JAWS Score: Hudson 73rd best starting pitcher, Buehrle 79th best starting pitcher.
Neither pitcher ever won a Cy Young Award. Buehrle finished in 5th place once, the only time he received votes. Hudson finished second in 2000 and had 3 other top 6 finishes. So why is it that Buehrle is on his 6th Hall of Fame ballot, with a solid total of 20% of the vote, and Hudson only lasted 2 ballots before he fell below 5%? To me, they seem to be very much the same pitcher, and I think you can make a better statistical case that Hudson was a better pitcher than Buehrle. BBWAA voters, please explain why you voted for Buehrle over Hudson.
Omar Vizquel: Even Omar Vizquel moved up in the voting this year. Omar Vizquel, who has been accused of domestic abuse and sexual harassment. I have no idea why 8 more people voted for Vizquel in 2026 than in 2025. The good news is that Omar only has one more year left on the ballot.
David Wright: Saw a 6% increase this year. For me, Wright was a very good player with several Hall of Fame-worthy seasons, but he falls short of being a Hall of Fame player for me. It will be interesting to see if he and Pedroia continue to gain support during their time on the ballot.
Francisco Rodriguez: It’s crazy to me that he gained support. He was a jerk, not a Hall of Famer in my book.
Torii Hunter: As always, bringing up the rear, Torii just skated by once again, getting 8.7% of the vote. Hunter has been on the ballot for 6 years but has never received 10% of the vote. I’m glad he’s still on the ballot, but I keep hoping some year he’ll break through and at least get up to 20%, so he’s out of the danger zone. Perhaps with the BBWAA electing two center fielders this year, more writers looked favorably on Hunter’s resume.
Let’s do some comparing. Hunter was a 5-time All-Star, with 9 Gold Gloves. Andruw Jones was a 5-time All-Star with 10 Gold Gloves. Jones leads in WAR, 62.7 to 50.6. Hunter had a longer career, and he leads in most of the counting stats: runs, hits, doubles, RBIs, and stolen bases. Jones has a significant lead in home runs: 434 to 353. Hunter’s slash line is: .277/.331/.461/.793, for an OPS+ of 110. Jones’s slash line is: .254/.337/.486/.823, for an OPS+ of 111. It’s interesting to me that Hunter’s OPS+ is just 1 point lower than Jones’ despite Jones leading in 3 of the 4 slash lines. Hunter didn’t have the career peak that Jones did, but man, was he steady.
30 home run seasons
Jones: 7
Hunter: 1
20 home run seasons
Jones: 10
Hunter: 11
100 RBI seasons
Jones: 5
Hunter: 2
80 RBI seasons
Jones: 10
Hunter: 13
As I said, Hunter didn’t have those huge seasons like Jones did, but he was steady and very good for so long across his whole career.
I think it’s great that players are gaining support the longer they are on the ballot, but I think there’s also a weird kind of groupthink or bandwagon effect about it as well. How does Larry Walker go from 21% to 75% in just three years? That’s a mind-boggling shift. I suppose it’s better that Walker had such a dramatic increase over a short period of time as opposed to a longer period, but it also makes the BBWAA look a little unhinged.
Is EVERY player on the ballot gaining votes a sign that writers are doing their job, or just a sign that you can talk yourself into voting for anyone if you think about it long enough? My question at the end of last year’s Hall of Fame vote was will any of the 8 players who received less than 20% of the vote move up, or will some of them drop off the ballot? Well, they all moved up, and now there are only 4 players who received less than 20% of the vote. We’ll see if everyone gains votes next year.
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