2024 Baseball Hall of Fame BBWAA Ballot Results

My newly-acquired Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter relic card probably just went up in value. (Photo by Mark C. Taylor)

Yesterday Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, and Todd Helton were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. It wasn’t a shock that Beltre was elected on his first ballot, as he sailed in with 95.1% of the vote. And it wasn’t too surprising that Helton finally made the jump over 75% of the vote, as last year he fell just short of induction with 72.2%, and this year he increased to 79.7%. I think the real surprise was Joe Mauer getting 76.1% and becoming a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Although it wasn’t too much of a surprise now that we have ballot tracking, which showed Mauer well over the 75% threshold.  

Honestly, I’m still a bit in shock that Joe Mauer was voted in. It’s partially my Midwestern insecurity at work, but I’m stunned that he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. If you had asked me a year ago, I would have predicted that Mauer would get maybe 25% of the vote. But I’m very excited that he’s in the Hall of Fame. If you want an athlete for your kids to look up to, it’s Joe Mauer.  

I predicted that Billy Wagner would be elected too, but he fell 5 votes short. Which means he’ll get in next year for sure. Let’s take a look at the results of the ballot, and what it portends for the players. 

Gary Sheffield had a decent gain, but it wasn’t enough, as he ended up at 63.9% of the vote in his final year on the BBWAA ballot. We’ll see how the Era Committee handles him. Sheffield is in the odd category of being punished for presumed steroid use without having failed a drug test. I read ESPN’s article about what the HOF vote shows for these players, and Jesse Rogers said about Sheffield: “Add his 509 home runs and 253 stolen bases to his resume, and Sheffield did it all.” Um, yeah, how about his -27.7 DWAR, Jesse? To be a 5-tool player, you need to be a great fielder too. Sheffield also just doesn’t have a narrative for his career, either. He bounced around and played for so many different teams-I've always said I’m curious as to what team Sheffield would pick for the logo on his cap if he got into the Hall of Fame. If the election of Joe Mauer shows us the power that a great narrative can have, of a really nice guy playing his whole career for his hometown team, Gary Sheffield shows us how not having a narrative might hurt a player’s chances at the Hall of Fame.  

Andruw Jones saw just a 3% increase to 61.6%, but with 3 years left on the ballot, he should get in soon, perhaps even in 2025.  

Carlos Beltran moved up to 57.1%, which bodes well for him getting in. I think he deserves it; at his peak he was one of the best 5-tool players. 

Alex Rodriguez lost 5 votes this year, proving what I said a year ago, that his support is very static and doesn’t show signs of growth or movement. That doesn’t bode well for his chances at election, as he obviously needs a significant gain to start getting traction with the voters.  

The same is true for Manny Ramirez, who finished with 32.5% in his 8th year on the ballot. Unless something crazy happens, he’ll be sent to the Era Committee.  

Chase Utley had a strong debut, with 28.8%. That doesn’t really mean a lot one way or the other for his eventual induction, but it proves that he’s a serious contender. Utley is one of those guys who doesn’t have huge counting stats, only 1,885 hits, but he had 5 years with 7 or more WAR, so it’s fair to say he had some Hall of Fame-type seasons. Is that enough to get him into the Hall of Fame? Time will tell.  

Omar Vizquel dropped again, down to 17.7% in his 7th year on the ballot. The only question is, will he drop off the ballot before he ages off the ballot? 

Bobby Abreu dropped slightly, to 14.8%. I’m glad he’s staying on the ballot, but I’m frustrated he hasn’t had bigger gains. Abreu was an interesting player—he had a lot of different skills. With the increased attention being paid to sabermetric stats and OBP, I’m surprised more people aren’t realizing that Abreu could be a Hall of Famer. Part of the problem is probably that Bobby Abreu just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer to most people.  

Jimmy Rollins gained slightly, tying Abreu at 14.8%. Again, I’m glad he’s staying on the ballot, but I think Rollins deserves more support.  

Andy Pettitte basically holds steady at 13.5% in his 6th year on the ballot.  

Mark Buehrle just keeps hanging on at 8.3%. I’d be fine if Buehrle dropped off the ballot, he’s had his chance with the BBWAA voters and his case obviously isn’t resonating. He was an excellent pitcher, but not quite a Hall of Famer.  

Francisco Rodriguez dropped in his second year on the ballot, to 7.8%. I think he’ll drop off next year. 

Torii Hunter just barely scraped by, getting 7.3% on his 4th year on the ballot. I keep holding my breath for Torii, hoping he’ll make it another year on the ballot. Torii’s always been one of my favorite players, and I think he should be at more like 15-20% of the vote.  

David Wright got 6.2% in his ballot debut, so he gets to hang around another year. We’re seeing players with shorter careers either get elected to the Hall of Fame (Joe Mauer) or get significant support on the ballot (Andruw Jones, Chase Utley) and that may bode well for a player like Wright, who had several Hall of Fame-type seasons before spinal stenosis ended his career.  

The following players received less than 5% of the vote and will drop off the ballot: 

Victor Martinez, Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and James Shields. There are excellent players on this list, guys like Jose Bautista who had a few Hall of Fame-type seasons, and Matt Holliday and Adrian Gonzalez, who put together solid careers. And then there’s Bartolo Colon. I’m really bummed out that Big Sexy didn’t get a chance to survive to another ballot, but the BBWAA ballot is really harsh on pitchers. Oh well, Colon will always be one of baseball’s legendary characters. And I’m really pleased that Brandon Phillips got 1 single vote. It always makes me happy when players I liked who have no chance of getting in at least get 1 vote.  

Looking ahead to 2025, the leading new candidates on the ballot will be Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia. See you in late 2024 when the ballot is announced.  

2024 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Adrian Beltre, one of the best third basemen ever, leads the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot.

Joe Mauer at the plate during his terrific 2009 season.

It’s that time of year—the results of the 2024 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot will be announced on January 23rd. Here’s my annual look at the candidates up for election. First, we’ll take a look at the players returning to the ballot, in the order of their percentages from last year. 

Todd Helton: With 72.2% of the vote in 2023, Helton should sail in this year. I don’t have strong feelings about Todd Helton. He was an excellent player, and I’m fine with him getting in.  

Billy Wagner: Again, I don’t have strong feelings about Wagner. He just kind of flew under the radar for me during his career. But he’s got the numbers for the Hall as a closer, so I think he should get in.  

Andruw Jones: He’s had a really interesting journey, debuting on the 2018 ballot with just 7.3% of the vote. In 2019 he only moved up to 7.5%, and it seemed like he wouldn’t gain the traction to become a serious candidate. But that’s completely turned around, and Jones garnered 58.1% of the vote last year, putting him on a good path to eventual induction. I’d like to see Jones in the Hall of Fame, he was a fantastic player for a decade, he just fell off a cliff after he turned 30. 

Gary Sheffield: It’s his last year on the ballot. He’d have to gain another 20% to get in, but that’s happened before. The HOF ballot tracker shows Sheffield getting in with exactly 75% of the vote. Those totals usually go down when the results are announced, so it’s possible Sheffield will see a significant gain but fall short. Sheffield is an interesting player, he was such a great hitter, but such an awful fielder, with –27.7 DWAR! He must be the worst fielder who wasn’t moved to DH.  

Carlos Beltran: Debuted last year with 46.5%, an excellent number. I always really liked Beltran as a player, and I was so disappointed when he was involved in the 2017 Astros cheating scandal. As a player, I think Beltran deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. At his peak, he was a 5-tool player. I think Beltran will move up, forecasting his eventual election. 

Alex Rodriguez: A-Rod only gained 4 votes last year, which tells me that his support is not very fluid. The ballot tracker shows him at 40%, a 5% gain that may level out when the ballots are announced. That doesn’t bode well for his future chances.  

Manny Ramirez: He’s not getting in. This is his 8th year on the ballot, can we please just be done with him already? 

Omar Vizquel: His support will drop again, as off the field issues have ruined his candidacy.  

Andy Pettitte: He won’t get anywhere this year. Here’s where I make my annual joke about the fact that Pettitte won 256 games but only threw 4 shutouts. Mike Smithson, 1980’s starter for the Twins, won 76 games, and threw 6 shutouts. Pettitte started 521 games. Smithson started 204.  

Bobby Abreu: He finally got above 10% of the vote last year, finishing at 15.4%. I think Abreu should be a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame, so I’m glad to see him get any increase.  

Jimmy Rollins: Another Phillies stalwart who deserves serious consideration as well. From the ballot tracker, it looks like Rollins won’t increase much, if at all.  

Mark Buehrle: He’s survived 3 years on the ballot, but he might drop off this year. I was fine with Buehrle staying on the ballot, but I don’t think he’s quite a Hall of Famer.  

Francisco Rodriguez: Francisco, that’s fun to say! He was lucky to stay on the ballot. He might drop off this year, and good riddance.  

Torii Hunter: My man Torii is still on the ballot, which is a victory! He had just 6.9% of the vote last year, so he needs a bump to stay on. I’d like to see him stay on the ballot; he was a great player who quietly put up some great career numbers. I think Hunter should be getting around 15-20% of the vote, I think that’s a more accurate assessment of his career than 6.9% of the vote.  

That takes care of the holdovers, let’s take a look at the newcomers to the 2024 ballot.  

Jose Bautista: Joey Bats! Had an auspicious start to his MLB career, as he played for 4 teams in his rookie year of 2004. Bautista became a star in 2010, when he slugged a league-leading 54 home runs for the Blue Jays. He had a great run from 2010-2015, but his career numbers are far short of the Hall of Fame.  

Adrian Beltre: Yup, he’s a Hall of Famer! Simply put, Beltre was one of the very best third basemen to ever play the game. Beltre made his MLB debut at the age of 19, and through age 30 he had a decent but not spectacular career, except for an amazing 2004 season that seemed to come out of nowhere. Then from 2010 to 2018, Beltre had a string of torrid seasons, 1 for the Red Sox, and the rest for the Rangers, and played himself into the Hall of Fame. Which is a hard thing to do. With the Rangers, Beltre hit .304, and put up an OPS+ of 128. All while providing excellent defense at third base as well. The only question with Beltre’s candidacy is how high his percentage will be: he’s at an incredible 98.8% on the ballot tracker.  

Bartolo Colon: Big Sexy! Okay, there’s no way that Colon is going into the Hall of Fame, but man, what an entertaining pitcher. The ballot tracker shows Colon with only 1 vote, which is a shame. Colon had so many ups and downs during his long career, including a positive test for steroids in 2012, but he was able to pitch in the majors until he was 45 years old. Along the way, Colon won 247 games, the most of any Latin American-born pitcher. I was super excited when the Twins picked Colon up in 2017, and I saw his complete game win against the Rangers at Target Field on August 4, 2017. Colon was the oldest AL starter to win a complete game since Nolan Ryan in 1992.  

Adrian Gonzalez: An excellent player who had some great seasons and put together a very nice career, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.  

Matt Holliday: Another really solid player who had some great seasons, but not a Hall of Famer.  

Victor Martinez: Like Holliday and Gonzalez, an excellent player, but not a Hall of Famer.  

Joe Mauer: I’m from Minnesota, so I have a lot of thoughts about Joe Mauer. I’m two years older than Joe Mauer, and I’ve known who he was since he was in high school. My Dad took me to see him play in a state championship game in 2001. He knew this Mauer kid was something special. The Twins chose Mauer with the first pick in the 2001 draft, a much better choice than Mark Prior. I had tickets to see Mauer play for the Quad Cities River Bandits in 2002, but the game was rained out. Obviously, Mauer’s debut with the Twins was highly anticipated. Mauer hit .308 in 2004, his rookie season in MLB, but a knee injury cut his season short.  

Mauer quickly blossomed as a player, hitting .347 in 2006 to claim his first batting title, and becoming the first catcher in the American League to ever win a batting title. Mauer won two more batting titles in 2008 and 2009. 2009 was an amazing season for Mauer, as he led the AL in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, with an incredible triple slash line of .365/.444/.587. It was the kind of perfect season that athletes can seldom replicate. Injuries hampered Mauer in the years to come, and after 2013 he moved to first base permanently, in an attempt to protect Mauer from concussions. It was expected that the move to first base would improve Mauer’s numbers, but that didn’t happen. Mauer’s batting average from 2014-2016 was just .268. Mauer rebounded in 2017 to hit .305.  

Living in Minnesota, it’s hard for me to think about Joe Mauer’s national reputation, or how other fans and writers might view his career. Since last summer, when the Twins elected Mauer to their Hall of Fame, there’s been a fairly steady drumbeat that Mauer deserves to be in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Mauer is currently sitting at 82.9% on the ballot tracker, tied with Todd Helton, and behind only Adrian Beltre. There’s a very good chance that Joe Mauer might become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I think that’s amazing, and I’m a little astounded by it, to be honest.  

At his peak, Mauer was definitely a Hall of Fame-caliber player, but his career numbers are a little light. Mauer finished his career with 1,018 runs scored, 143 home runs, and 923 RBI’s. It’s rare for players with fewer than 1,000 RBI’s to be elected to the Hall of Fame. The most recent players elected by the BBWAA with fewer than 1,000 RBI’s are Tim Raines and Barry Larkin. But there’s a recent Era Committee player who was elected with fewer than 1,000 RBI’s that is an excellent comparison to Joe Mauer. He’s another player who won 3 batting titles and played his entire career with the Twins: Tony Oliva. They played different positions, but it’s an interesting comparison. In his final at-bat with the Twins, Mauer did exactly what he did so many times during his career, slashed a clean line drive double.  

Brandon Phillips: He was always a fun player to watch, with a great sense of humor. Phillips had an excellent career, finishing with 1,005 runs scored, 2,029 hits, 211 home runs, 951 RBI’s, and 209 stolen bases. Not enough for the Hall of Fame, but a solid career for sure.  

Jose Reyes: An excellent player at his peak, he probably projected to be a Hall of Famer at one point, but it just didn’t happen. Solid career, though.  

James Shields: A solid, workhorse starter, but not a Hall of Famer. 

Chase Utley: A really interesting player. Utley’s peak seasons are definitely Hall of Fame-caliber years from a second baseman. But his career wasn’t super long, and he finished his career with just 1,885 hits. The ballot tracker shows Utley with a healthy 44.5% of the vote, a nice start with a good chance for eventual enshrinement in Cooperstown. I’d be fine if Utley got in, he was a fantastic second baseman. I just have to shift my mind to accept some of these players who had shorter careers.  

David Wright: Another excellent player with several Hall of Fame-caliber seasons to his credit. Spinal stenosis ultimately ended Wright’s career. Wright put up solid career numbers, but I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer.  

And that sums up the 2024 BBAWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. I will be bold in my prediction and say that the BBWAA will elect 4 players in 2024: Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, and Billy Wagner.